• Cotton prices hit 12-month high, rising 8.7% since December

• Gains driven by tighter supply, lower U.S. acreage forecasts

• Rising fertilizer costs add pressure, supporting further price increases

Cotton prices have been recovering across global markets since early February 2026. According to data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE Futures U.S.), cotton futures closed at 71.31 cents per pound on April 7, 2026, or about $1.57 per kilogram, up 8.7% from the Dec. 31, 2025 close of $1.45 per kilogram.

The April 7 close marks the highest level for cotton prices in the past 12 months. The last comparable level was recorded on May 5, 2025, when futures closed at 72.06 cents per pound, or about $1.59 per kilogram, on ICE.

According to Trading Economics, markets are pricing in tighter global supply following recent acreage data.

“Actual acreage often deviates from early government estimates and this uncertainty is compounded by confirmed production cuts in other major producing nations such as Brazil, China and Australia,” the platform said in its April 4 market update.

On March 31, Chinese commodity data firm SunSirs said U.S. cotton acreage is projected to fall to 9.23 million acres in 2026, down from a prior estimate of 9.4 million acres, citing adverse weather. The United States is the world’s fourth-largest cotton producer, after China, India and Brazil. Record temperatures in the U.S. Cotton Belt in March could disrupt planting and weigh on output.

Beyond supply concerns, analysts expect a rise in production costs driven by tensions in the global fertilizer market.

An impact from the Middle East conflict?

Cotton is a fertilizer-intensive cash crop, particularly reliant on NPK and urea. Rising fertilizer prices are likely to feed into production costs, especially in countries heavily dependent on imports. Brazil, the world’s third-largest cotton producer, is a case in point. The country imports 87% of its fertilizer needs, according to the USDA.

Since late February 2026, military escalation involving the United States, Israel and Iran has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes, around 16 million metric tons, according to UNCTAD.

In a note published on March 19, the International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) said the average FOB price of urea rose by about 37% in the first week of the conflict. By the second week, prices had climbed to around $715 per metric ton, up roughly 45% from pre-escalation levels.

Taken together, these factors point to further gains in cotton prices in the coming months. More broadly, this trend creates an opportunity for producers in West and Central Africa to boost export earnings. In the region, about 98% of cotton is exported as raw fiber.

Stéphanas Assocle