• South Africa expects 88,000 tons of avocado exports in 2026.

• The forecast reflects growing output from new orchards.

• Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea could threaten exports.

South Africa’s avocado industry expects to place 22 million cartons of avocados on international markets in 2026, equivalent to about 88,000 tons, according to Derek Donkin, chief executive of the South African Subtropical Growers’ Association.

Donkin shared the forecast with local outlet Farmer’s Weekly on March 9.

If achieved, the projection would represent a 15.8% increase from last year’s 76,000 tons and a rebound from the 82,787 tons exported in 2024.

The expected growth is largely driven by new avocado orchards reaching maturity, which should increase production and the volume available for export.

Official data show that about 60% of South Africa’s annual avocado harvest is exported, while the remaining share is sold on the domestic market.

Logistics challenges remain

While the 2026 outlook points to a recovery in exports, the sector still faces major logistical challenges that could affect access to key markets.

In 2025, the industry had to deal with shipping disruptions linked to the Red Sea crisis, a major route for cargo shipments to Europe, South Africa’s main export destination.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), renewed attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea last year created security risks that forced shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal, the fastest maritime route to Europe.

As vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, travel times and transport costs increased, a factor the FAO identified as the main reason for the decline in South Africa’s avocado shipments in 2025.

Geopolitical tensions could further complicate logistics in 2026. Since late February, the escalation of military tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has raised security concerns across the Middle East.

Iran has reportedly announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping corridor, according to international media reports. At the same time, Houthi forces aligned with Tehran have intensified threats against maritime traffic in the Red Sea, increasing risks along the major trade routes linking Asia, Europe, and Africa.

These developments could weigh on the export ambitions of South Africa’s avocado industry, which has been expanding its presence in Asia since 2023 with market openings in China, India, and Japan.

According to Donkin, discussions are also expected to begin in 2026 to secure future access to the South Korean market.

Data compiled on the Trade Map platform show that South Africa exported nearly $204 million worth of avocados in 2024. About 76% of the revenue came from the European Union, followed by the United Kingdom (13%), Russia (5.3%), and Asia (4%).

In this uncertain context, industry players are urging producers to remain cautious in managing the upcoming season.

Zac Bard, director of supply chain strategy at Westfalia, one of the leading companies in the horticulture sector, said avocados have the advantage of staying on the tree for some time, offering flexibility in harvest timing. This allows exporters and producers to adjust harvest and marketing plans if logistical constraints or unfavorable market conditions arise.

Stéphanas Assocle