• Speculative funds increased net long positions in wheat futures to a six-year high of 117,375 contracts.

• Wheat prices rose to $6.1 per bushel, near their highest level since October 2024.

• Strong global supply, including 820 million tonnes forecast production, continues to cap price gains.

Global agricultural markets are on edge as the crisis in the Middle East raises concerns about disruptions to fertilizer flows and staple food supplies. Hedge funds operating on the Chicago Board of Trade have increased bets on rising wheat prices in recent weeks.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for the week ended March 31 showed that long positions in wheat futures, each representing 125 tonnes, jumped to 117,375 contracts, their highest level in six years. At the same time, short positions declined to 108,734 contracts.

Because investors take long positions to anticipate higher prices, this shift reflects growing expectations among speculators that wheat prices will rise in the coming months.

According to Bloomberg, adverse weather conditions partly explain this bullish outlook. Persistent drought in the U.S. Plains could reduce harvests in one of the country’s key producing regions.

Meanwhile, wheat prices climbed to $6.1 per bushel (25 kg) in late March, approaching their highest level since October 2024, according to Trading Economics.

In parallel, hedge funds are also betting on the impact of fertilizer market disruptions linked to the war in Iran.

The conflict, now in its sixth week, has already affected fertilizer markets such as urea and has triggered a global push to secure supplies for upcoming crop cycles.

However, market observers remain cautious about the scale of any price increase because supply fundamentals remain relatively strong.

According to a statement released on April 3 by the Food and Agriculture Organization, most wheat plantings for the 2026 season have already been completed.

The organization forecasts global wheat production at around 820 million tonnes in 2026, representing a 1.7% year-on-year decline due to less attractive prices and unfavorable weather conditions in the European Union, Russia, and the United States. Nevertheless, this level remains above the five-year average.

Furthermore, global wheat stocks have reached their highest level in five years, helping to limit the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East on prices. As a result, wheat prices increased by only 4% between February 28 and April 1.

Espoir Olodo