• India approved exports of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat and 500,000 tonnes of wheat products, ending restrictions imposed in May 2022.

• The USDA forecasts a record Indian wheat harvest of 117.9 million tonnes in 2025/2026.

• Analysts expect limited export impact due to high global supply and relatively uncompetitive Indian prices at $280–$290 per tonne.

India will return to the export market during the current season. According to data relayed by analytics firm S&P Global Platts, authorities approved on Friday, February 13, the sale of 2.5 million tonnes of wheat on the international market, along with 500,000 tonnes of derived products. The decision ends restrictions in place since May 13, 2022, which authorities introduced to curb rising domestic prices amid tight supply prospects.

The Press Information Bureau, the Indian government’s central information agency, detailed the rationale in an official statement. "Given the increased availability of stocks, softening prices, higher production prospects, and the need to avoid distress sales during the peak arrival period, the government's decision to allow the export of 2.5 million tons of wheat and 500,000 tons of wheat products will help stabilize domestic prices, improve market liquidity, ensure efficient stock rotation, and further boost farmers' incomes, while preserving national food security."the statement read.

In the world’s most populous country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects wheat output to reach a record 117.9 million tonnes in the 2025/2026 season, according to February 2026 data. The forecast follows an already high harvest of 113.2 million tonnes recorded a year earlier.

Marginal Impact in a Saturated Market

Local industry players welcomed the decision. However, some observers expressed reservations.

In 2022, India’s export ban rattled markets because authorities announced the measure just two months after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, which drove wheat prices sharply higher and intensified global food security concerns. Since then, market dynamics have shifted.

Global supply now outweighs demand pressures. The USDA expects world wheat production to reach a new peak of 841 million tonnes in 2025/2026. In this context, Indian cargoes may add incremental volumes to an already well-supplied market and could reinforce the downward trend in prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT). Traders expect Indian shipments to attract limited attention in a highly competitive environment.

India ranks as the world’s second-largest producer and consumer of wheat after China. However, the country remains a minor exporter compared with major suppliers such as Russia, Canada, Australia, Argentina and Ukraine.

According to information from local traders relayed by Platts, Indian wheat currently trades at around $280 to $290 per tonne. Several analysts consider this level uncompetitive and forecast sales “limited to nearby destinations.”

Recent USDA assessments support this view. On Thursday, February 5, the agency reported that Argentine wheat offered the lowest price on the international market at $208 per tonne, ahead of Australia at $252, the European Union at $238, the United States at $258 and even Russia at $229, the world’s leading wheat exporter.

This article was initially published in French by Espoir Olodo

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum