• Global natural rubber market seen 400,000-ton deficit in 2026
• Production 15.2 million tons, demand 15.6 million tons
• Supply gap expected to keep prices under upward pressure

The global natural rubber market is expected to post a deficit of nearly 400,000 metric tons in 2026, according to forecasts from the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), as reported by Reuters on Thursday.

The projected shortfall would mark the sixth consecutive year of a global supply gap, the ANRPC said.

Global natural rubber production is expected to rise 2.4% year-on-year to 15.2 million tons, while demand is forecast to grow 1.7% to 15.6 million tons, leaving the market in deficit.

“Supply growth continues to fall short of expectations due to unfavorable weather conditions, limited replanting of aging rubber trees, persistently low productivity among smallholders after years of depressed prices, and competition for land,” the ANRPC said.

Conditions vary across producing nations. Côte d’Ivoire stands out as the only country among the world’s top three producers where output is expected to increase, partly driven by expanded cultivated areas. Thailand, the leading supplier, is expected to see output remain flat, while Indonesia, the second-largest producer, is forecast to post a decline.

On the demand side, growth is being driven by India and China, as well as a stronger outlook in Europe and the United States. The ANRPC cited rising new vehicle registrations in the European Union and expected growth in tire shipments to the United States, supported in part by recent trade agreements.

In January 2026, the EU and India concluded a free trade agreement reducing tariffs on a wide range of Indian goods, including rubber products and polymers. On Feb. 11, Washington and New Delhi signed an interim trade agreement laying the groundwork for a broader bilateral deal. The pact cuts tariffs on Indian goods, including rubber, to 18% from 50%.

Price Rise Expected to Continue

The anticipated deficit is likely to maintain upward pressure on prices. World Bank data show that average prices for TSR20-grade natural rubber, widely used in the automotive industry, rose 1.14% year-on-year to $1.77 per kilogram. The institution also reported that TSR20 averaged $1.84 per kilogram in January 2026, up 5.7% from December levels.

In this context, high-performing producers such as Côte d’Ivoire are well positioned to benefit from rising export revenues. According to the Directorate General of Customs, Côte d’Ivoire, the largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), exported an average of 1.47 million tons of natural rubber per year between 2020 and 2024, generating average annual export revenues of 1.068 trillion CFA francs, or about $1.9 billion.

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