• China plans to reduce soybean imports to 82.55 million tonnes by 2035, down about 26% from the 2025 peak.

• Authorities aim to boost domestic production and cut reliance on foreign agricultural commodities.

• Analysts remain cautious, citing past unmet production targets and conflicting global forecasts.

China is now prioritizing food self-sufficiency. The Ministry of Agriculture stated in its latest agricultural outlook report that Beijing aims to reduce soybean imports to 82.55 million tonnes by 2035. Reuters reported that this target implies a decline of about 26% from the record 111.83 million tonnes reached in 2025.

China, the world’s second most populous country, is already seeking to cut soybean imports by 6.1% this year. Authorities are pursuing a broader strategy to reduce dependence on foreign supplies by accelerating efforts to improve domestic productivity.

The report states that China will reduce grain imports from 140.56 million tonnes in 2025 to 115 million tonnes by 2035. At the same time, domestic grain production should rise to 753 million tonnes, compared with 715 million tonnes last year.

However, some analysts remain cautious in response to the announcement. China has repeatedly outlined ambitions to curb soybean imports in the past.

In January 2022, authorities said they planned to produce 23 million tonnes of soybeans by 2025 to reduce imports. However, recent data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show that output has not yet exceeded 21 million tonnes since 2022.

The End of an Era?

While observers await further details on the government’s strategy, some analysts say that these projections, if realized, could mark the end of a long growth cycle in the global soybean market.

For more than two decades, China’s surging imports have driven key industry indicators. The country, which holds the world’s largest pig herd, has fueled demand for protein meal used in animal feed, supporting global production and exports.

Consumption increased further after producers rebuilt livestock herds following the African swine fever outbreak in August 2018. This recovery created favorable conditions for Brazil, which converted vast pasturelands into soybean cultivation.

Global soybean production now exceeds 420 million tonnes annually, more than 100 million tonnes higher than in the 2015/2016 season, according to USDA data. Brazil has become the leading exporter, controlling more than 40% of global trade and overtaking the United States as China’s top supplier.

This expansion has reshaped global value chains, as companies developed ports, railways, storage facilities, and processing plants across South America to meet Chinese demand.

China’s latest projections sharply contrast with the “Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034” published jointly in July 2025 by the OECD and the FAO.

“In China, growth in crushing volumes should slow compared with the past decade, and Chinese imports should remain relatively stable at around 107 Mt by 2034 (after rising 3.4% annually in 2015–24), representing about 60% of global soybean imports,” the authors said.

This article was initially published in French by Espoir Olodo

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum