• Farmers plan to plant 486,400 hectares, down 6% year-on-year.

• Area would drop below 500,000 hectares for the first time in nine years.

• Rising input costs and market volatility continue to erode profitability.

Farmers intend to plant wheat on about 486,400 hectares in 2026, according to the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) in its winter crops report published on April 23.

This projection implies a decline of 30,900 hectares, or 6%, from the previous year. Moreover, it would mark the lowest level since 2015, when planted area reached 482,150 hectares. It would also represent the first time in nine years that wheat area falls below 500,000 hectares.

Authorities attribute the reduced interest in wheat to an economic environment marked by rising production costs and volatile global markets, which continue to undermine the profitability of winter crops.

Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen highlighted the pressure on input costs. He stated that fertilizer and diesel account for nearly 50% and 18% of wheat production costs, respectively, and that prices have surged due to supply chain disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict.

“Producers in regions such as the Swartland, Overberg, and Southern Cape are clear: under current market and policy conditions, wheat farming is no longer economically viable, and intervention across the value chain is critical,” he said, as quoted by Cape Business News on April 22.

The expected reduction in planted area points to another year of declining domestic output. South Africa’s wheat production has fallen steadily since reaching a record 2.28 million tonnes in 2021.

The CEC reported that the sector produced 1.89 million tonnes in 2025. This figure represents a 17% decline over four years and marks a fourth consecutive annual drop since 2021.

As domestic production continues to weaken, South Africa will likely increase wheat imports in the 2026/2027 marketing season to close the widening supply gap.

According to the FAO, the country consumed an average of 3.6 million tonnes of wheat per year between 2022 and 2024.

This article was initially published in French by Stéphanas Assocle

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum