• Brazil expected to produce 182 million tons of soybeans in 2025

• Country could control over 42% of global output and nearly 60% of exports

• U.S. share continues to decline amid Brazil’s structural rise

Brazil’s grip on the global soybean market continues to strengthen. According to forecasts released on March 25 by Global Energy CERA, the South American country is expected to harvest 182 million tons of soybeans in 2025, from nearly 50 million hectares of planted area.

Such output would allow Brazil to account for more than 42% of global production, up from 30.3% a decade ago. The surge is also expected to push exports to around 112 million tons, representing 59.2% of global trade.

From challenger to dominant force

Brazil’s current position marks a historic shift. For decades, the country played a secondary role behind the United States.

Soybeans were first introduced in Brazil in the late 19th century for research purposes, with commercial cultivation taking shape in the 1960s and 1970s. At the time, the United States dominated the market, accounting for more than 60% of global supply in 1980 and around 56% according to data from the Agricultural Policy Analysis Center (APAC) at the University of Tennessee.

Brazil’s transformation into a global powerhouse began in the early 2000s. Driven by strong demand from China for protein meal used in pig farming, production expanded rapidly. This growth was supported by the conversion of large pasture areas into soybean fields and advances in agricultural technology.

“Brazil has come a long way. About ten years ago, it could not compete with the United States in terms of yields. But improvements in seed technology have allowed it to catch up and even surpass the U.S.,” Marcela Marini, a senior research analyst at Rabobank Brazil, told Ecofin Agency in 2021.

While the United States long maintained leadership in both production and exports, the global landscape has shifted significantly since the 2010s. According to S&P, Brazil has led global soybean trade since the 2012/2013 season and overtook the United States as the world’s top producer in 2017/2018.

For the 2025/2026 season, the gap is expected to widen further. CERA analysts forecast U.S. soybean production at 116 million tons, representing 26.9% of global output, down from 33.8% in 2015/2016. U.S. exports are projected at 42.9 million tons, or 22.6% of global trade, compared with 39.8% a decade earlier.

These trends confirm a structural shift in the global soybean market, with Brazil consolidating its leadership as demand continues to grow and competitive dynamics evolve.

Espoir Olodo