• Chinaplans to remove tariffs on imports from African countries starting May 1, 2026.

• Analysts say more industrialized African economies could capture most export gains, potentially sidelining least developed countries.

• The policy could still benefit poorer countries if regional supply chains allow them to integrate into export production networks.

More developed African economies could capture most of the benefits from the zero-tariff treatmentthat China plans to apply to imports from the continent, potentially at the expense of the least developed countries.

Lauren Johnston, a researcher at the China Studies Centreat the University of Sydney, presented this assessment in an analysis published on March 12 in The Conversation.

Her article, titled “China’s new tariff-free regime for Africa: the potential upside and downside,”analyzed the implications of Beijing’s decision to remove tariffs on African imports.

The article recalled that Xi Jinpingannounced on February 14 that China will eliminate customs duties on all imports from African countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Beijing starting May 1, 2026.

Chinese authorities said the initiative will help “create new opportunities for Africa’s development.”

China first announced the tariff dismantling in June 2025, during a period marked by disruption in global trade linked to tariffs imposed by the administration of Donald Trump.

At that time, the Chinese government did not specify the implementation date for the measure, which aims to rebalance trade flows between China and Africa. These flows currently generate a large surplus in favor of Beijing.

China will grant the tariff exemption to all African trade partners except Eswatini, the last diplomatic ally of Taiwanon the continent.

Until now, 33 African countrieshave already benefited from zero-tariff access under China’s preferential trade policy for least developed countries (LDCs).

However, China excluded middle-income African countriesfrom those preferences.

For example, South Africahas continued to face tariffs ranging from 10% to 25%on most exports to China, including fruits, wine and processed food products.

Regional Supply Chains Could Balance the Gains

With the new zero-tariff policy, middle-income African economies will gain duty-free access to the Chinese market for the first time.

However, Johnston warned that the measure could concentrate export production for China in Africa’s most advanced economies, such as South Africa, Moroccoand Kenya.

These countries possess stronger industrial bases and better logistics performance. As a result, they are better positioned to expand exports once tariffs disappear.

By contrast, least developed countries could lose the advantage linked to the “special status”they enjoyed under the previous tariff regime. Structural constraints may also continue to limit their export capacity, including unreliable electricity supply, inadequate port infrastructure and challenges related to meeting trade standards.

The analysis nevertheless argued that African countries could reduce these unequal gains by developing transnational and intra-regional supply chainsbased on comparative advantages.

These supply chains could allow exporters from both LDCs and middle-income countries to reach the scale and competitiveness required to expand exports to China.

Under this scenario, least developed countries would not need to export directly to China. Instead, they could integrate into regional production networks and benefit indirectly from China’s new tariff policy.

Such integration could simultaneously support Africa’s broader trade integration process.

Walid Kéfi