• Shell forecasts global LNG demand growth of at least 54% by 2040, reaching up to 710 million tonnes annually.

• Developing markets, especially in Asia, will drive most of the demand growth, with non-OECD Asia already accounting for 41% of imports.

• Supply-demand gaps will persist beyond the mid-2030s, requiring new investments in production capacity.

The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is entering a phase of sustained expansion. Shellsaid global demand will increase by at least 54% by 2040, according to its presentation titled “LNG Portfolio: Strategic Spotlight 2026”, released on March 16.

The company expects global LNG consumption to reach between 650 million and 710 million tonnes per yearby that date. By comparison, global demand stood at about 422 million tonnes in 2025, based on the company’s data. Shell said developing markets will generate most of the future LNG demand.

The company identified Asia as the main growth engine. Non-OECD Asian countries accounted for about 41% of global LNG imports in 2024. “We expect a large share of LNG demand growth to occur in developing markets, particularly in Asia,”the company said. The company added that LNG serves multiple uses, including power generation, industrial activity, heating and transport.

The company said LNG plays a key role in balancing energy systems, especially as renewable energy capacity expands. However, Shell expects a supply-demand gap to persist beyond the mid-2030s. This imbalance will require additional investments in production capacity. At the same time, companies are developing new liquefaction and export projects across multiple regions.

LNG as a Strategic Pillar for Shell

The expected rise in LNG demand is driving a strategic repositioning at Shell. The company has identified LNG as a priority within its energy portfolio in order to capture future market growth. This shift reflects broader changes in global gas trade. Shellsaid LNG accounted for about 13% of global gas trade and could reach nearly 20% by 2040.

This increase reflects a restructuring of global energy flows, with maritime gas trade gaining importance. The company highlighted LNG’s flexibility as a key advantage. This flexibility allows integration into various energy systems and supports adoption in new markets.

As a result, LNG is strengthening its role in global energy supply. At the same time, Shell said it is prioritizing the most profitable gas projects. This approach reflects a broader strategy among energy majors to focus on segments offering sustained growth potential.

This article was initially published in French by Abdel-Latif Boureima

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum