• Guinea is preparing export restrictions to support falling global bauxite prices
• The move follows a sharp price drop and rising logistical costs
• Authorities may draw on models like Congo’s cobalt strategy, with key differences

Guinea plans to curb bauxite exports by April as prices slump in an oversupplied market. The plan, confirmed by Mines Minister Bouna Sylla in comments to Reuters on March 18, aims to reduce export volumes in order to stabilize global prices, which have been under pressure in recent months.

The move comes from the world’s largest bauxite exporter, which accounts for about 40% of global supply. Prices have fallen by around 50% since January 2025, according to data from Fastmarkets, amid excess supply, particularly in China.

At the same time, rising logistics costs linked to tensions in the Middle East have squeezed mining companies’ margins and reduced government revenues from the sector, the minister said. In response, authorities have asked operators to submit production plans covering the next three years. These are now under review as the government defines how the export restrictions will be applied.

“This should be done before the end of the month or early April. All companies will be affected. We want more revenue, and they want more sustainable operations,” Sylla said, according to Reuters.

The proposed reform has drawn comparisons with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s approach to cobalt. The country, the world’s leading cobalt producer, introduced an export embargo in February 2025 before shifting to quotas to support prices amid oversupply.

That strategy proved effective, with cobalt prices more than doubling in the months that followed. The comparison with Guinea also reflects structural similarities: both countries rely heavily on China as a key export market and on Chinese operators for resource extraction, including groups such as China Hongqiao and Aluminum Corporation of China.

Still, Sylla has pointed to key differences. “This is not really a quota, but we will reduce the volumes we export,” he said, suggesting a more flexible approach than Congo’s model.

Much remains unclear about how the policy will be implemented and how it could affect prices over the medium term. Andy Farida, an analyst at Fastmarkets, said the strategy could work if Guinea cuts exports to around 150 million tons per year, compared with 183 million tons exported in 2025, when volumes rose 25%.

However, he cautioned that other producers, including Australia and Brazil, could step in to fill any supply gap, potentially limiting the impact of Guinea’s strategy.

Bauxite remains one of Guinea’s main export commodities, alongside gold and iron ore. In 2022, it accounted for 44% of export revenues from the extractive sector, which itself contributed nearly 20% of the country’s GDP.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou