• Countries including Ghana, South Africa, and Kenya are seeking fuel supplies from Dangote Refinery.

• Brent crude has exceeded $100 per barrel, with peaks near $120 amid geopolitical tensions.

• Dangote’s 650,000 bpd refinery offers regional supply but prioritizes Nigeria’s domestic market.

Countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Kenya are now turning to the Dangote Group’s Nigerian refinery to secure fuel supplies, according to Nigerian newspaper The Nation, which cited sources familiar with the matter.

This shift follows a surge in global oil prices. Brent crude has risen above $100 per barrel, with recent peaks near $120, driven by escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. At the same time, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global النفط transit route, have tightened supply conditions.

The Dangote refinery, which began production in 2024 after multiple delays and heavy investment, has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. The facility is positioning itself as an alternative supplier for African countries that have historically depended on refined fuel imports from the Middle East.

Several governments have initiated discussions on medium-term supply contracts to secure volumes amid ongoing uncertainty. However, about three-quarters of the refinery’s output is allocated to Nigeria’s domestic market, which limits export availability.

Despite this constraint, regional demand is rising as countries seek closer and more reliable supply sources.

Structural dependence exposed by energy crisis

This trend highlights a structural vulnerability across the continent. Many African countries continue to import a large share of refined petroleum products despite producing crude oil.

Dependence remains particularly high in East Africa, where about 75% of fuel imports originate from the Middle East. In addition, the lack of strategic reserves that meet international standards increases exposure to supply disruptions.

In this context, the emergence of regional refining capacity provides a partial response to logistical and commercial dependence. The Dangote refinery underscores the growing role of private sector actors in shaping Africa’s energy supply landscape.

Since the onset of the crisis, the refinery has adjusted its prices in line with global market fluctuations while partially absorbing increases to limit the impact on Nigeria’s domestic market.

In the short term, competition among African buyers will remain high as they compete for limited export volumes. Over the medium term, increased local refining capacity could reduce some dependence on imports, although it will not fully eliminate the regional supply gap.

Therefore, national strategies will likely continue to combine supply diversification, stock management, and bilateral agreements.

At the same time, persistent geopolitical tensions will remain a key driver of price movements and trade flows. Meanwhile, the expansion of refining infrastructure in Africa could gradually reshape the continent’s supply chains. In parallel, some countries will need to strengthen storage capacity to improve resilience against external shocks and better manage supply disruptions.

This article was initially published in French by Olivier de Souza

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum