• Middle East disruptions cut global jet fuel shipments by about 21%
• Europe faces supply strain as Asian and Gulf flows decline
• Dangote refinery emerges as a potential alternative source

Europe could increasingly turn to Nigeria’s Dangote refinery for jet fuel as disruptions in the Middle East tighten global supply.

The near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced seaborne jet fuel availability by about 21%, according to Kpler, directly affecting Europe, which has long relied on shipments from Asia and the Gulf.

At the same time, flows from the East are becoming harder to secure. Higher prices in Asia, along with export restrictions in China and potentially South Korea, are redirecting cargoes away from European markets.

Indian supplies, particularly from the Jamnagar refinery, are also less accessible due to uncertainty linked to European sanctions on Russian crude.

As a result, attention is shifting toward the Atlantic Basin, including the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Africa.

In that context, the Dangote refinery is emerging as a potential alternative supplier. In 2025, it exported around 89,000 barrels per day of jet fuel, positioning it as a viable source for Europe.

This reflects a broader regional trend. West Africa has become structurally surplus in refined products, largely driven by the ramp-up of the Dangote refinery. That surplus could support export volumes even if domestic demand takes priority.

Still, alternative supply options remain limited. Exports from the U.S. Gulf Coast are constrained by demand in Latin America, technical specification differences, and infrastructure limits. Even when arbitrage opportunities to Europe exist, shipments rarely exceed one million tons per month.

Europe also faces internal constraints. Refinery configurations, existing diesel commitments, and logistical bottlenecks make it difficult to quickly boost jet fuel output. Sustainable aviation fuel is expanding under regulatory pressure but still represents only a small share of total supply.

In this environment, shipments from the United States and West Africa—including those from the Dangote refinery—are unlikely to fully offset the drop in Middle Eastern supply.

In the short term, the market is expected to adjust through higher prices and longer trade routes as supply and demand rebalance. Much will depend on how long geopolitical disruptions persist and how quickly alternative sources can be mobilized.

Olivier de Souza