• Africa's air cargo rose 21% in February, led by a 61.9% surge in the Asia corridor despite global logistics shifts
• Ethiopian Airlines gains via new freighters, while smaller carriers like ASKY face insolvency with 55% fuel costs
• Jet fuel prices hit $171, up 76% since Feb 28, causing critical shortages in Zambia and South Africa as Gulf routes stall.

Africa posted the fastest expansion in global air freight demand for the fifth straight month in February 2026, with cargo tonne-kilometers rising 21.0% year-on-year, almost double the 11.2% worldwide average recorded by the International Air Transport Association, data from the Geneva-based trade body showed.

The continent’s lead widened from 18.2% growth in January. Capacity across African carriers climbed 17.3%, lifting the cargo load factor by 1.3 percentage points to 43.8% — still below the global average of 46.0%, indicating headroom for further volume gains without immediate rate pressure, according to IATA’s February market analysis. The Middle East ranked second at 16.5%, while Latin America and the Caribbean lagged all regions at 0.7%.

“As demand for air freight continues to grow, Ethiopian Airlines remains committed to investing in modern, sustainable solutions that cement our position in the global cargo market,” Mesfin Tasew, chief executive of Ethiopian Airlines Group, Africa’s largest carrier by network and cargo volume, said in a statement issued March 24.

The February figures cement what has become a structural shift rather than a seasonal spike. The Africa–Asia trade corridor expanded 61.9% year-on-year — more than twice the second-fastest route, Middle East–Asia at 24.0% — in its eighth consecutive month of growth, IATA data showed. The corridor’s acceleration, from roughly 10% in July 2025 to 41.6% in January and then 61.9% in February, mirrors the early trajectory of the Asia–North America lane in the early 2000s, now the world’s largest cargo route by volume.

Corridor Surge

Three catalysts converged to drive the Africa–Asia trajectory. Kenya and China signed a preferential trade agreement in January 2026 granting duty-free access to 98.2% of Kenyan products on the Chinese market, while Beijing separately announced tariff reductions covering most African nations, effective May 2026. Both measures favor high-value, time-sensitive goods — cut flowers, avocados, pharmaceuticals — that are precisely the commodities requiring air freight over maritime alternatives. DHL reinforced the structural read in October 2025 by committing more than 300 million euros to cold-chain capacity in sub-Saharan Africa.

A second accelerant arrived on Feb. 28, when U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and sweeping airspace restrictions across the Gulf. Emirates SkyCargo, Qatar Airways Cargo, and Etihad — which together account for roughly 13% of global air cargo capacity, according to Freightos data — suspended or sharply curtailed operations out of Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi. Airspace closures removed an estimated 16% to 18% of global cargo capacity on the Asia–Europe and South Asia–Europe corridors, Xeneta reported, while rates on some routes surged as much as 70%, according to data tracked by logistics platform Flexport.

Ethiopian Airlines recorded a surge in bookings as shippers scrambled to reroute time-sensitive cargo through Addis Ababa, according to sector analyses by Italy’s ISPI institute. On March 24, the airline and Dublin-based lessor AerCap — the world’s largest aircraft leasing company — announced lease agreements for two Boeing 777-300ERSF converted freighters, which AerCap markets as “The Big Twin.” The aircraft, offering 25% more capacity than smaller long-haul twin-engine freighters, will be the first of their type to operate anywhere on the continent, with deliveries scheduled for the second quarter of 2028, AerCap said in a statement.

The upside for African hubs, however, is qualified. Addis Ababa’s cargo terminal processes around one million tonnes annually — a fraction of what Dubai or Doha handled before the crisis — limiting the continent’s ability to absorb diverted volumes at scale. Kenya Airways and Royal Air Maroc are also adding freighter capacity, with Nairobi and Casablanca positioning as alternative transit points, but infrastructure constraints on sorting and ground handling remain a ceiling on short-term substitution.

The same crisis that is opening doors for the continent’s leading carriers is threatening smaller operators with insolvency. Fuel represents 30% to 40% of operating costs for African airlines, compared with a global average of 20% to 25%, according to the African Airlines Association. With roughly 70% of Africa’s jet fuel supply transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, jet fuel prices on the continent climbed to $171 per barrel — more than double the January level — according to the Platts index. South Africa holds just three to four weeks of domestic stocks, the Board of Airline Representatives of South Africa said. Zambia had a ten-day supply as of mid-March. Regional carriers including ASKY, fastjet, Air Côte d’Ivoire, and Precision Air, which lack the hedging capacity and supply chain leverage of Ethiopian or Kenya Airways, have suspended routes or reduced frequencies.

The June 2026 African Air Transport Convention, scheduled in Lomé, Togo, was already set to take up cargo liberalization under the Single African Air Transport Market, an African Union initiative covering 38 signatory states. February’s data will provide the strongest possible argument for unlocking fifth- and seventh-freedom rights for freight — a reform proponents say would multiply the efficiency of emerging hubs. Whether the crisis at the Gulf accelerates political will or diverts attention to fuel security will be the defining question for Africa’s most dynamic transport sector heading into the second half of the year.

idriss Linge