• The World Bank expects global fertilizer prices to rise by more than 30% in 2026 because of the Middle East conflict.

• Urea prices jumped 53.7% month-on-month in March to $725.6 per ton, their highest level in four years.

• Nearly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 16 million tons annually.

Global fertilizer prices could climb by more than 30% in 2026 because of the conflict in the Middle East, the World Bank said on Tuesday, April 28, in the latest edition of its “Commodity Markets Outlook” report.

Since the conflict began two months ago, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have tightened the global fertilizer market. The waterway handles nearly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, or about 16 million tons annually.

Prices already reflected the pressure in March. Urea prices jumped to $725.6 per ton, marking a 53.7% increase from February and the highest level in four years.

At the same time, diammonium phosphate (DAP), the world’s most widely used phosphate fertilizer, traded at $658.3 per ton, up 5%. Meanwhile, muriate of potash (MOP) prices increased from $372.5 per ton in February to $380.6 per ton in March.

Overall, the fertilizer price index rose by more than 12% between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026.

“Fertilizers have not been this unaffordable since 2022, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future agricultural yields,” the World Bank said.

Urea to Drive Further Gains in Coming Months

The situation has already become critical for agriculture and global food security. Moreover, the financial institution does not expect relief in the near term.

The World Bank expects fertilizer prices to continue rising in the coming months, with urea leading the rally because it remains the world’s most widely used nitrogen fertilizer.

According to the report, urea prices should close this year at $675 per ton, nearly 60% above 2025 levels. However, the World Bank expects prices to decline by 25% in 2027 if natural gas prices ease.

“Among the main upside risks are a prolonged period of severe shipping constraints in the Middle East or a resurgence of hostilities, which could worsen shortages. In addition, concerns about fertilizer availability in domestic markets could prompt major exporters to impose restrictions, while a stronger-than-expected rebound in natural gas prices would further increase production costs (gas accounts for 80% to 90% of the cost of producing ammonia, the main input for urea). If these risks materialize, the average urea price in 2026 could exceed the average of $700 per ton recorded in 2022, marking its second-highest real level since 1974,” the World Bank warned.

The World Bank expects more moderate price increases for other fertilizers. The institution forecasts DAP prices to rise by around 6% in 2026 compared with 2024 levels before falling by 10% in 2027 as new production capacity comes online.

Likewise, the World Bank expects MOP prices to increase by about 12% in 2026 before declining by 6% by 2027.

“In the longer term, the commissioning of significant new production capacity, particularly in Canada — the world’s leading potash producer and exporter — could place additional downward pressure on prices. Overall, risks surrounding the price outlook appear relatively balanced, as MOP production and exports do not depend heavily on the Middle East,” the World Bank said.

This article was initially published in French by Espoir Olodo

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum