• AFC plans 2026 fundraising for Zambia Lobito railway section
• Financial close targeted 2027; delays could threaten 2030 deadline
• Viability concerns include demand forecasts, competition, investor risk

Africa Finance Corporation plans to launch a fundraising round for the Zambian section of the Lobito Corridor railway in the third quarter of 2026. Financial close is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027. This nearly two-year timeline raises questions about feasibility, as meeting the 2030 construction deadline depends on the success of this preliminary phase.

2027: A realistic horizon?

Two scenarios have emerged, according to observers. The first, an optimistic one, assumes financing is secured within the announced timeframe. The second anticipates delays beyond 2027, driven by constraints in financial structuring and investor risk perceptions.

The trajectory will largely depend on whether project sponsors can resolve uncertainties around the project's viability. In a report titled “The Lobito Corridor: Between European Geopolitics and African Agency,” the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM) identifies several risk factors.

The institution cites what it sees as overly optimistic forecasts for copper and cobalt export growth, as well as projected traffic at the port of Lobito. It also points to competition from the TAZARA corridor linking Tanzania and Zambia.

Timing, a strategic issue for regional logistics

In both scenarios, timing is critical. Global demand for copper and cobalt, driven by the energy transition, is evolving rapidly, increasing pressure on export infrastructure. Beyond financial considerations, the project timeline could have direct implications for regional logistics performance.

Freight flows currently rely on alternative corridors that are often congested or longer. Mineral exports face multiple constraints, including bottlenecks on existing routes, high transport costs and extended transit times, with journeys sometimes exceeding 20 days.

The project, initially estimated at more than $6 billion, involves several partners, including the United States, the European Union and the Southern African Development Bank. In June 2025, Italy announced $320 million in financing. This was followed in December by a $553 million loan agreement signed by the International Development Finance Corporation with the consortium developing the corridor.

Separately, Africa Finance Corporation is coordinating environmental and social studies. It expects to receive construction bids for the Zambian section by the end of May, following the completion of a feasibility study.

Henoc Dossa