• Military escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States has raised the risk of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal.
• Together, these routes handle a major share of global oil and maritime trade, with direct implications for African economies.
• A simultaneous disruption could trigger higher energy prices, freight costs, inflation, and fiscal pressure across the continent.

The military escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States reached a dramatic turning point in late February 2026, following joint Israeli-American strikes on strategic facilities and senior military officials inside Iran. The attacks reportedly killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the central figure of Iran’s regime since 1989, prompting an immediate response from Tehran’s military apparatus.

Iran condemned what it labeled a “major act of aggression” and launched missiles and drones at Israeli targets and Western interests across the region. Explosions and missile interceptions were reported in several Gulf capitals, including Abu Dhabi, Doha, Manama, and Dubai, signaling a rapid regional expansion of the conflict.

As tensions intensified, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. At the same time, Tehran-aligned actors, including the Houthi movement in Yemen, stepped up threats against shipping in the Red Sea, putting major trade routes linking Asia, Europe, and Africa at risk.

Beyond the immediate military and diplomatic fallout, the crisis has taken on a powerful geo-economic dimension. Markets are now bracing for the possibility of simultaneous disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea–Suez Canal corridor — two arteries vital to global energy and maritime trade, and to the macroeconomic stability of many African economies.

Hormuz: An Energy Lifeline and a Fiscal Pressure Point for Africa

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most sensitive energy chokepoints in the world. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 20% of global oil consumption passes through the strait each day — roughly 17 to 20 million barrels exported primarily from Gulf producers.

The corridor is also critical for global liquefied natural gas trade, particularly shipments from Qatar, making it a strategic lever in the global energy balance. Any prolonged disruption to maritime traffic in this area would almost certainly push up oil and LNG prices, with immediate consequences for production costs and trade balances in energy-importing countries.

For Africa, the vulnerability is structural. Although only about 13% of the continent’s total imports pass directly through the Strait of Hormuz, a disruption in the area would still carry significant consequences. Most African economies, especially in West and East Africa, remain net importers of refined petroleum products. A sustained spike in crude prices would therefore raise energy import bills, strain foreign exchange reserves, and drive up the cost of transportation, thermal power generation, and industrial activity.

Suez and the Red Sea: A Trade Corridor Under Strain

Beyond Hormuz, a second strategic weak point lies in the Red Sea–Suez Canal corridor, which would be directly exposed if Houthi attacks on commercial shipping resume amid heightened support for Tehran. The Yemeni rebel group has already announced a renewed wave of attacks in the region.

The Suez Canal alone accounts for roughly 12% to 15% of global trade and nearly 30% of global container traffic, making it a central hub for trade flows between Asia, Europe, and Africa.

The vulnerability of this corridor has already been demonstrated. In 2024 and part of 2025, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea led to a sharp drop in traffic through the canal, one of Egypt’s main sources of foreign currency. In March, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi estimated monthly losses at about $800 million. Canal revenues fell by nearly 60% in 2024 as a whole, resulting in an estimated shortfall of nearly $7 billion.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has noted that security disruptions in the Red Sea have already forced many vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding thousands of miles to shipping journeys and significantly increasing global freight costs.

According to UNCTAD, several East African countries rely heavily on the canal for their external trade. About 31% of Djibouti’s trade passes through Suez, compared with 15% for Kenya and 10% for Tanzania. Sudan appears the most exposed, with roughly 34% of its external trade transiting the canal.

A Potential Double Shock for African Economies

A simultaneous disruption in Hormuz and the Suez–Red Sea corridor would create a dual shock — both energy and logistical. According to UNCTAD, more than 80% of global merchandise trade moves by sea, leaving many African economies, which are highly open and dependent on international trade routes, directly exposed.

In such a scenario, higher maritime freight rates combined with rising energy prices would fuel significant imported inflation, particularly for fuel, food products, and consumer goods. African countries that depend on imported cereals and agricultural inputs would face higher supply costs, increasing pressure on food security.

A sustained surge in energy prices could force several African governments to expand fuel subsidies and support electricity tariffs in order to contain social and inflationary tensions. The International Monetary Fund has previously observed that past energy shocks led to wider fiscal deficits in sub-Saharan Africa, driven by higher energy spending and more expensive imports.

In an already challenging global financial environment, a prolonged rise in energy import bills could also intensify pressure on African currencies, as higher payments in dollars are required for oil and maritime transport.

At a time when many African economies are working to stabilize their macroeconomic fundamentals and bring inflation under control after the successive shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the stability of these strategic chokepoints has become central to the continent’s economic resilience. Another major disruption would once again underscore the need for African countries to strengthen economic autonomy and reduce their heavy exposure to global value chains that have repeatedly been shaken since the start of the decade.

Moutiou Adjibi Nourou