• Lucara Diamond expects revenue from its Karowe mine to fall sharply in 2026.
• Weak global demand and competition from synthetic diamonds are weighing on the industry.
• The downturn threatens Botswana’s economy, which relies heavily on diamond revenue.

Canada’s Lucara Diamond said on March 3 that it expects lower revenue in 2026 from its Karowe diamond mine in Botswana. The forecast reflects broader headwinds facing the country’s diamond industry, which has struggled in recent years as the global market weakens.

Falling production volumes and declining revenue

Global demand for natural diamonds has slowed in recent years, partly due to competition from synthetic stones that are putting pressure on prices. In Botswana, the trend is showing up across the country’s main mining operations.

Lucara reported revenue of $203.9 million from the Karowe mine in 2024, followed by a decline to $159.7 million last year. For 2026, the company expects revenue between $100 million and $130 million.

The Karowe diamond mine site in Botswana

The forecast suggests a continued erosion of the mine’s earnings, as Lucara anticipates lower sales volumes.

The outlook is also weak for De Beers, which operates Botswana’s two other major diamond mines, Orapa and Jwaneng. Together, the sites account for more than 70% of the company’s global production.

De Beers has revised its production outlook downward for the current year, extending a series of adjustments made in recent years. In 2025, the company’s production volumes dropped by 16%.

The company had initially planned to produce up to 29 million carats this year but now expects a maximum of 26 million carats. The estimate also includes smaller contributions from De Beers operations in Namibia and South Africa.

In a note released on February 20, 2026, the company said short-term market conditions are likely to remain difficult.

Persistent macroeconomic volatility, cautious inventory management across the midstream segment of the industry, and the growing penetration of synthetic diamonds are all expected to limit demand for rough diamonds in the near term.

Botswana’s economy under pressure

The slump in the diamond market is also weighing on Botswana’s economy. The country is Africa’s leading producer of natural diamonds by volume and remains heavily dependent on the sector.

Diamonds account for roughly one-third of Botswana’s government revenue and about 25% of its gross domestic product.

Authorities expect the economy to contract for a second consecutive year in 2025, with GDP forecast to decline by about 3%.

Mining revenues are projected to reach 10.3 billion pula (about $768.3 million) in the 2025–2026 fiscal year, well below the historical annual average of 25.3 billion pula.

Given the outlook from major industry players, the full impact of the diamond market downturn on Botswana’s economy in the coming months remains uncertain.

In response, the government is already working to reduce its reliance on diamond revenues. A recently presented five-year development plan places new emphasis on investment in transport infrastructure, water systems, and housing.

Botswana is not the only African country exposed to shifts in the global diamond market. Angola and Namibia are also among the continent’s major diamond producers.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou