• World Bank forecasts rubber prices rising to $1.90/kg in 2026
• Demand growth, supply deficits drive sixth consecutive market shortage
• Africa exported $3 billion rubber in 2024, led by Côte d’Ivoire

Natural rubber prices are expected to extend their upward trend in 2026, according to the World Bank’s April Commodity Outlook.

The bank forecasts the average price of TSR20-grade natural rubber, the most widely used in the automotive industry, will rise 7.34% to $1.90 per kilogram, from $1.77 in 2025.

The increase is expected to be driven by continued steady demand growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), where the automotive sector is expanding rapidly. In the 12 months to January 2026, global demand grew modestly, led by China and India at around 2% each, the World Bank said.

“Tire manufacturing, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of natural rubber consumption, remained broadly stable for light vehicles but strengthened for heavy vehicles, supporting overall consumption,” the report said.

In February, the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) projected global demand would reach 15.6 million tons in 2026, up 1.7% year on year.

A Market Under Sustained Pressure

The expected demand growth comes against a backdrop of persistent supply-demand imbalance that has defined the global market for several years.

The ANRPC estimates a deficit of about 400,000 tons in 2026, marking a sixth consecutive year of shortage, as demand continues to outpace supply.

Producing countries face structural constraints, including adverse weather and insufficient replanting of aging rubber plantations, limiting output.

Despite these supply challenges, higher prices could boost export revenues for African producers, where most output is exported in raw form.

Data from the Trademap platform shows African countries exported nearly $3 billion worth of natural rubber in 2024, accounting for 18.5% of global shipments totaling $16 billion.

Côte d’Ivoire dominated, accounting for 82% of the region’s export value at $2.45 billion.

Other major exporters include Liberia, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria. In total, 21 African countries exported natural rubber in various forms in 2024, according to Trademap.

Stéphanas Assocle