• Climate change could reduce Somalia’s GDP by up to 13.5% by 2060, according to a World Bank report.

• Agriculture accounts for more than 70% of GDP and employs about 80% of the workforce, making the economy highly climate-sensitive.

• Targeted investments in climate-smart agriculture and resilient infrastructure could halve the projected economic losses.

Climate change could significantly weaken Somalia’s economy over the coming decades, according to a report released on March 5 by the World Bank Group.

The report states that Somalia’s gross domestic product could decline by as much as 13.5% by 2060 as climate shocks intensify.

The study, titled Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), was presented jointly with the Government of Somalia. The document states that the country ranks among the states most vulnerable to climate-related shocks, including droughts, floods and extreme weather events.

These risks carry significant implications for Somalia’s economy.

The country’s nominal GDP is expected to reach about $11.71 billion in 2026, while large segments of economic activity depend on climate-sensitive sectors.

Agriculture accounted for more than 70% of GDP and employed nearly 80% of the workforce in 2024. Somalia also has more than 8.9 million hectares of arable land.

This structural dependence on the primary sector increases the country’s exposure to climate variability.

Between 2021 and 2023, Somalia experienced one of the most severe droughts in its recent history, which intensified humanitarian needs for more than 8 million people.

The World Bank recommends targeted investments to reduce the economic impact of climate change.

The institution urges authorities to invest in climate-smart agriculture, resilient cities, disaster risk management and stronger public institutions.

According to the report, these measures could reduce climate-related economic losses by half while supporting the creation of more stable and productive jobs.

The report comes at a time when Somalia has recorded some economic progress.

In 2023, Somalia completed the debt relief process under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, a milestone that helped restore financial stability and improve access to international financing.

However, the World Bank says the country must strengthen its capacity to plan and finance climate action.

The institution adds that Somalia must mobilize more private-sector participation to transform climate resilience investments into sustainable economic opportunities.

This article was initially published in French by Carelle Tahou (intern)

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum