• GDP growth reached 6.7% in 2025, up from 6.5% a year earlier

• Expansion fueled by hydrocarbons and agriculture, while other sectors slow

• Growth expected to drop to 2.5% in 2026 as oil impact fades

Senegal’s real GDP growth rose to 6.7% in 2025, up from 6.5% in 2024, according to a report released April 8 by the Ministry of Economy, Planning, and Cooperation.

The performance was largely driven by extractive activities linked to hydrocarbons, along with a recovery in the primary sector, particularly agriculture. This momentum was partly offset by slower growth in services and weaker net taxes on products.

The report notes, however, that economic activity outside agriculture and hydrocarbons continues to slow. Growth in these segments is estimated at 1.6% in 2025, extending a downward trend observed since 2017 and pointing to persistent structural weaknesses in traditional productive sectors.

Inflation remained within the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) target range, rising slightly to 1.4% in 2025 from 0.8% the previous year. The stability reflects easing global prices for energy and food, despite some pressure on local goods.

According to the International Monetary Fund, Senegal’s economy remained resilient in 2025 despite a challenging global environment and tighter financing conditions. Budget performance through September broadly aligned with revised projections, supported by stable revenue collection and controlled non-priority spending.

The growth figures come as oil production exceeded expectations. Senegal produced 36.1 million barrels of crude in 2025, above the initial target of 30.53 million barrels, according to the Ministry of Energy, Petroleum, and Mines.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the primary sector contributed 3.6 percentage points to overall growth, driven by gains in agriculture (+4.7%) and fishing (+3.9%), according to the National Agency of Statistics and Demography. On a year-over-year basis, value added in the sector rose 8.6%, supported by strong growth in fishing (+18.3%), agriculture (+9.4%), and livestock (+4.8%).

Despite these gains, Senegal continues to face mounting debt pressures. The World Bank warns that the situation has worsened macro-fiscal prospects, raising concerns about debt sustainability, increasing borrowing costs, and contributing to a downgrade in the country’s credit rating.

Growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2026, as the boost from hydrocarbons fades after a full year of production.

Lydie Mobio