• Intra-African trade seen rising 10% to $230 billion in 2026
• Growth driven by AfCFTA implementation and regional trade reforms
• Manufacturing and agri-food sectors to increase trade share

Intra-African trade is forecast to grow 10% in 2026 to $230 billion, up from $210 billion in 2025. The increase is driven largely by accelerating implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), according to a report published on March 30, 2026, by the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank).

The report, titled African Trade and Economic Outlook 2026 - Moving up the ladder: Capturing more value from Africa's commodities, describes the growth estimate as an optimistic scenario. It is based on political stability, regional integration and targeted competitiveness reforms, alongside a stabilization of the global trade environment. The scenario assumes easing geopolitical tensions, partial normalization of supply chains and renewed confidence in the multilateral trading system, allowing African economies to turn structural reforms into sustained gains in trade and income.

The improved intra-regional trade outlook is expected to be driven by progress in 2025, including the entry into force of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS), which is set to reduce foreign exchange costs by 20% to 30%, the gradual elimination of non-tariff barriers along key trade corridors and the adoption of the AfCFTA protocol on digital trade.

In 2026, the share of intra-African trade in the continent's total trade is expected at 16%, compared with an average of 15% in recent years. The manufacturing and agri-food sectors are expected to play a larger role, accounting for 48% to 50% of intra-African trade flows, up from 46% in 2025, offsetting a slowdown in commodity trade.

Regional trade flows are also expected to become more balanced across the continent's sub-regions. Southern Africa will remain the primary driver of intra-regional trade, but faster AfCFTA implementation is expected to broaden participation from West and East Africa, while North Africa continues to strengthen its commercial ties with other sub-regions.

A large untapped potential

Africa's total trade, both within and outside the continent, reached approximately $1.4 trillion last year, the report says. The continent's trade balance is imbalanced: exports outside Africa are dominated by commodities, which account for 60% to 70% of the total, while imports are dominated by manufactured goods, at 60.5%.

Africa's share of global exports remained modest at around 3%, indicating that the recent recovery in trade was driven more by cyclical price effects than by a structural shift in the continent's position within global value chains. Despite efforts to diversify trading partners, the continent remains exposed to commodity price volatility, with varying levels of dependence across sub-regions.

North Africa combines higher-value exports with relatively broad diversification, while West and Central Africa remain highly concentrated, dominated by crude oil, unprocessed agricultural products and mining goods. East Africa has the lowest export values but shows greater diversification, reflecting the range of its agricultural output and the emergence of a light manufacturing sector.

These gaps also create opportunities. African exports are approximately $433.8 billion below their potential, representing a significant opportunity for both the private sector and development partners. Expanding agricultural processing and mineral beneficiation could help unlock this potential.

Agricultural processing could increase export earnings by 42.3%. Mineral processing could boost GDP growth by 4.3 percentage points, create 412,000 jobs and generate $120 billion in annual export revenues at more advanced stages. To fully unlock these opportunities, Africa needs to strengthen regional integration, improve governance and invest more heavily in infrastructure.

Walid Kéfi