In regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, human capital deficits reduce potential income by between 58% and 76%. Weak health systems, low-quality education and an uninclusive labor market remain the main constraints on future productivity.

Sub-Saharan Africa has some of the world’s largest human capital deficits. Children born in the region today could earn up to 68% more as adults if their health and education matched those of top-performing countries at similar income levels, according to the World Bank.

That is the main finding of its 2026 Human Capital Index Plus, or HCI+, report, published in mid-February.

The HCI+ expands the index first introduced in 2018. While the original measured human capital up to age 18, the new version extends the analysis to age 65 and covers the full working life. It also tracks the likelihood that today’s children will grow into healthy, educated and productive adults.

The index measures how effectively countries convert human capital into economic output and links it directly to future income. Each additional point reflects a potential rise in lifetime earnings.

It combines three dimensions: health, education and employment. Health includes adult survival, nutrition, especially reductions in stunting, and overall public health conditions. Education is measured by years of schooling adjusted for learning quality, along with access to higher education. Employment captures work experience, labor force participation, unemployment and job quality.

Together, these factors determine productivity over a working lifetime.

“The index ranges from 0 to 325. Each unit corresponds to a percentage increase in labor income,” the report says.

Sub-Saharan Africa records an average score of about 127, well below the global average of 186. Performance across the region is both weak and broadly similar. Chad ranks lowest at 89, while the Seychelles tops the region at 227.

What drives the gap

Human capital deficits in the region reflect deep structural factors. “Education and employment explain most of the variation across countries,” the report notes. Education shows the widest gaps across income groups, with learning outcomes driving most of the differences.

Education scores remain far below the maximum of 188. Gabon scores 70, the Democratic Republic of Congo 63 and Niger 30. Kenya stands out at 109, while the Seychelles reaches 126.

Labor market outcomes are equally weak. São Tomé posts a score of minus 10, the lowest globally, reflecting high youth unemployment, widespread informality and a mismatch between skills and economic needs.

Health scores also lag, averaging around 30 out of a possible 50. Côte d’Ivoire scores 36, Nigeria 33 and Kenya 37. Poor health continues to weigh on productivity.

These challenges are compounded by conflict and fragility in several countries, which disrupt health, education and employment systems. Gender inequality further deepens the gap.

A mounting demographic challenge

The stakes are rising. Sub-Saharan Africa’s working-age population is expected to grow faster than in any other developing region over the next 25 years, adding more than 620 million people to the labor market, according to a 2025 World Bank report. The total population could reach 2.4 billion.

This growth will sharply increase demand for schools, healthcare and jobs.

Without stronger human capital, much of this workforce will remain underqualified and underproductive. Youth unemployment could rise to critical levels.

Structural constraints persist

Despite steady economic growth, health, education and employment systems face persistent structural weaknesses, including chronic underinvestment, unequal access and a labor market dominated by informality and underemployment.

In healthcare, the region faces severe staff shortages, weak infrastructure and limited access to quality services. According to the World Health Organization, 36 of the 57 countries facing critical health worker shortages are in Africa. The continent has just 0.21 doctors per 1,000 people, 1.3% of the global health workforce and 25% of the global disease burden.

Progress has been uneven. “Infant and maternal mortality remain high in many African countries,” the African Development Bank notes. Although Africa accounts for 15% of the world’s population, it represents 50% of deaths from communicable diseases.

Access remains a major constraint. Around one-third of Africans live more than two hours from a healthcare facility, while hospitals face shortages of beds, equipment and medicines.

Education faces similar pressures. A joint report by UNESCO, UNICEF and the African Union shows progress remains insufficient. School enrollment has risen since 2015, but more than 100 million children are still out of school. The Afrobarometer Pan-African Profile report, published in January 2026, finds that education is now a top priority for African citizens.

Learning outcomes remain weak. Systems face shortages of qualified teachers, limited infrastructure and a mismatch between training and labor market needs. Sub-Saharan Africa will need 11 million additional teachers to ensure quality education and 15 million to meet 2030 targets, according to the International Task Force on Teachers.

With rapid population growth, improving human capital is critical. The challenge is to turn this expansion into a demographic dividend, a large, skilled and productive workforce. Without progress, it risks fueling unemployment, poverty and instability.

On employment, the region must both create more jobs and improve their quality.

“The labor force participation rate in Sub-Saharan Africa is among the highest globally, 75% for men and 65% for women aged 15 and above. Yet most new entrants join the informal sector, where productivity is low and opportunities for income growth and social mobility are limited,” the World Bank says.

Strong potential for gains

Countries below the global average of 186, including those in Sub-Saharan Africa, have significant room for improvement. They could raise labor income by 58% to 76% if their human capital matched top performers at similar income levels.

The largest gains are in countries with the widest gaps. Nigeria and Egypt, for example, could each improve by around 70 points by aligning outcomes with best-performing peers at comparable income levels.

Lydie Mobio & Carelle Yourann