• Nigeria forecasts 4.68% growth in 2026, finance minister says

• Easing inflation, stable naira and reforms underpin economic outlook

• Government says debt rise reflects accounting changes, not new borrowing

Nigeria is expected to grow 4.68% in 2026, helped by easing inflation, a more stable exchange rate and continued structural reforms, the government said on Thursday.

"Economic growth is expected to reach 4.68% in 2026," Finance Minister Wale Edun said at the launch of the country’s macroeconomic outlook report.

Edun said Nigeria had moved beyond crisis management and was entering a consolidation phase, adding that stability should lead to growth, job creation and improved living standards.

The forecast is higher than estimates published late last year by the Central Bank of Nigeria (4.49%) and more recently by the World Bank (4.4%).

Edun said reforms including the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of exchange rates had helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, laying the groundwork for sustained growth.

Inflation, which peaked above 33% in 2024, fell to 14.45% in November 2025 and is expected to average 16.5% in 2026. Currency volatility has also eased, with the naira trading below 1,500 per dollar, while foreign reserves rose to $45.5 billion.

Edun warned that President Bola Tinubu’s administration could not pause or abandon its reform programme, saying the success of the consolidation phase would determine whether recent progress delivers productive jobs and shared prosperity.

"The consolidation phase will be supported by new structural reforms," Edun said.

He cited the full digitisation of public revenue collection, greater transparency in public finances and a tax framework aimed at protecting low-income households, including exemptions for basic food items and small businesses while widening the tax base. He also referred to measures to improve the business environment and develop human capital.

Edun dismissed concerns over rising public debt, which stood at about 152 trillion naira ($107 billion), saying the increase largely reflects improved reporting and exchange rate adjustments rather than new borrowing.

He said about 30 trillion naira was linked to previously unrecorded central bank financing known as "Ways and Means", while nearly 49 trillion naira stemmed from the revaluation of external debt after exchange rate reforms.

"Despite the increase in the nominal amount, Nigeria's debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen to 36.1%," Edun said, adding that it remains among the lowest in Africa and well below the global average.

Walid Kéfi