• MENA holds 46% of global desalination capacity. Water demand could rise 20%–50% by 2050.
• Desalination costs have fallen below $1 per cubic meter. Energy still makes up to 75% of operating costs.
• Annual funding needs reach $6.3–$7.2 billion in CAPEX and $5.4–$6.7 billion in OPEX through 2029.

In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), tackling water scarcity will require more than just building desalination plants. Efforts need to be part of a broader strategy that combines technology, environmental safeguards, governance reforms, and smart financing. That is one of the key messages of the World Bank’s December 2025 report, Fresh Perspectives: Emerging Issues and Opportunities for Desalination in the Middle East and North Africa.

A critical lifeline…

MENA is now the most water-stressed region in the world. Half of its 29 countries fall below 500 cubic meters of water per person per year — the threshold for absolute water scarcity.

Several forces are driving this crisis: overuse of groundwater, surging demand fueled by population growth, economic expansion, migration and refugee inflows, all made worse by climate change.

And the pressure is set to rise. Water demand in the region could increase by 20% to 50% by 2050. At the same time, the water deficit could multiply fivefold, requiring an additional 25 billion cubic meters to meet needs.

Against this backdrop, desalination has become a core adaptation strategy. It offers a stable water supply that does not depend on rainfall or depleted aquifers. By 2025, MENA accounted for 46% of global installed desalination capacity, compared with 23% in East Asia and the Pacific and 11% in North America.

The push has been led by high-income Gulf countries, which invested heavily in large-scale plants serving municipal and industrial needs. These investments have sharply reduced costs — from $2.5–$5 per cubic meter in the 1980s to less than $1 on average today, with some recent projects reaching $0.4–$0.5 per cubic meter.

Other countries, including Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, are now following the same path, positioning desalination as a long-term solution to bridge the widening gap between limited natural supply and rising demand. In Morocco, the government announced in November 2025 that it aims to meet 60% of its drinking water needs through treated seawater by 2030, up from 25% today.

But not enough on its own

While these initiatives are clearly necessary given the region’s situation, the World Bank stresses that desalination cannot be a miracle solution on its own.

The report notes that desalination remains highly energy-intensive, with energy accounting for up to three-quarters of operating costs. In systems already marked by high water losses, weak pricing policies and heavy subsidies, expanding desalination without governance reforms could widen public deficits — especially in low- and middle-income countries with limited fiscal space.

According to the institution, desalination must be developed as part of a broader, integrated approach. The first step would be to overhaul governance and financing models to make them more sustainable.

“It is easier to attract private capital when projects are ‘bankable’ — meaning they can repay investments and generate adequate returns solely from water tariff revenues. Yet many utilities in the region do not even cover their operating and maintenance costs under current tariffs, let alone finance desalination projects whose unit costs are significantly higher than conventional sources,” the report states.

This reform is all the more urgent as financing needs for desalination between 2026 and 2029 are estimated at more than $6.3 billion to $7.2 billion per year in capital expenditure (CAPEX), in addition to $5.4 billion to $6.7 billion annually for operations and maintenance (OPEX).

The report also underlines that future desalination projects must fully integrate technological and environmental considerations.

Environmental externalities linked to desalination are increasingly being managed and mitigated through technological innovation and improved operational practices. These advances are also strengthening efficiency and profitability. For example, integrating renewable energy systems and colocating desalination plants with power generation units can significantly reduce environmental footprints by lowering energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, the authors explain.

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