• The IMF lowered its 2026 growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3% from 4.6%.

• Rising energy, fertilizer, and shipping costs linked to Middle East tensions drove the downgrade.

• Nigeria and South Africa both face downward revisions to their growth outlooks.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in its latest report, titled “Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa,” published on Thursday, April 16, that the region’s economy will grow by 4.3% in 2026.

The institution reduced its forecast by 0.3 percentage points compared with its January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook, where it had projected growth of 4.6%.

The IMF attributed this revision primarily to the spillover effects of the conflict in the Middle East. The institution highlighted a sharp increase in prices for oil, gas, and fertilizers, alongside higher maritime transport costs.

In addition, the IMF pointed to disruptions in trade with Gulf partners, a decline in tourist arrivals, and risks of lower remittance inflows to some countries.

Growth prospects vary across the region’s largest economies. The IMF now expects Nigeria’s economy to expand by 4.1%, compared with a previous estimate of 4.4%.

The IMF also lowered South Africa’s growth forecast to 1% from 1.4%, reflecting weaker economic momentum.

This trend reflects a challenging global environment shaped by the ongoing effects of the Middle East conflict. Energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and financial market uncertainty continue to affect African economies. These factors are influencing macroeconomic stability and limiting fiscal space across several countries in the region.

The IMF expects sub-Saharan Africa’s growth to reach 4.4% in 2027. However, the institution stated that global risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.

This article was initially published in French by Ingrid Haffiny

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de Berry Quenum