Four years after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the fertilizer market is facing a new shock as military tensions escalate between Iran, Israel and the United States. The conflict has disrupted trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Here is what to know about the implications of this crisis for the global fertilizer industry and for African countries.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, is a strategic chokepoint not only for oil but also for the global fertilizer market and food security.
 According to a study published March 10 by UNCTAD, roughly one-third of all seaborne fertilizer trade, nearly 16 million metric tons, passes through the strait. That volume includes 67% urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, and 20% diammonium phosphate (DAP), the most common phosphate fertilizer.

A New Source of Pressure on Global Prices

Oil prices were not the only ones to react sharply. Fertilizer prices also surged. With tensions escalating along that corridor, Dutch banking group Rabobank said in a note published March 6 that urea prices in North Africa had jumped nearly 20% and European natural gas prices had risen about 45% in the 48 hours following the first strike against Iran.

Natural gas accounts for more than 50% of the production cost of nitrogen fertilizers, and the current situation in the fertilizer market is similar to what occurred four years ago. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 drove up energy prices, particularly for natural gas and coal, which hurt ammonia (NH3) production, the key ingredient in nitrogen fertilizers, leading to plant shutdowns in Europe and triggering a spike in fertilizer prices.

This crisis is unfolding in an already fragile market that is prone to disruptions. China continues to restrict nitrogen fertilizer exports to protect its domestic supply and has also reduced phosphate exports to prioritize production of lithium iron phosphate batteries used in electric vehicles. Belarus, a major potash supplier, remains under European Union sanctions, while Russia faces EU tariffs on its fertilizer exports.

The duration of the crisis will determine the scale of the challenges facing fertilizer market participants. Many are already concerned that rising urea and ammonia prices could prompt farmers to cut back on fertilizer use, reducing cereal production and overall food availability. According to the United Nations, nearly 50% of the global population depends on agricultural products that rely on basic mineral fertilizers (NPK).

Mixed Consequences for Africa's Major Exporters

Not all African countries are equally exposed to the rise in fertilizer prices. Reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz, along with fertilizer price pressures, could reinforce the strategic role of North African producers such as Morocco, Algeria and Egypt, which supply Europe with phosphate and nitrogen fertilizers.

"The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz triggered immediate price reactions in Egypt and Algeria, the two main European suppliers, which together account for more than 30% of nitrogen and ammonia imported into Europe. In Egypt, granular urea FOB prices climbed from $495-$505 per metric ton to $610-$625 per metric ton in the first trading days after the escalation. Algerian producers, who faced a surge in demand from buyers seeking safer and more reliable supply routes, saw prices rise to $631 per metric ton, a sharp and rapid increase from previous levels," Rabobank said.

In Nigeria, a net urea exporter, Bloomberg reported that the Dangote Group's order book was filling up amid the global supply disruption.

"Demand has increased significantly due to the shortage in the global market," Devakumar Edwin, vice president of Dangote Industries Ltd., told the business publication on March 9.

At the same time, those gains could be offset by rising import costs for raw materials such as ammonia, sulfur and gas. While Dangote is relatively insulated thanks to an abundant domestic gas supply and local ammonia production at its facilities, other African players could come under strain if the crisis is prolonged.

According to Rabobank, the surge in sulfur prices, a key raw material for phosphate fertilizer production, following the crisis is squeezing margins for producers already facing tariffs that rose in the second half of 2025 and exceeded 2022 levels.

"With around 50% of global sulfur trade now at risk due to the Middle East conflict, sustained or higher prices would have significant consequences. Ammonia adds another layer of pressure for phosphate producers, with prices jumping 15%-28% in recent days," the group said.

Morocco's OCP Group is among the African players most exposed to sulfur price fluctuations. According to data from Argus, OCP imported roughly 3.55 million metric tons of sulfur in the first six months of 2025, including 1.7 million metric tons from Kazakhstan, 1.23 million from the United Arab Emirates and 379,000 metric tons from Saudi Arabia. That followed a record 8.3 million metric tons for all of 2024, driven by new sulfur-burning capacity coming online.

In Egypt, it is the disruption to the gas supply, which accounts for about 50% of the country's energy mix, that could undermine fertilizer production capacity. As early as June 2025, Egyptian authorities had asked fertilizer producers to halt operations entirely due to insufficient fuel, following the closure of Israel's Leviathan and Karish gas fields after military strikes against Iran.

A Direct Impact on African Importers' Supply Chains

The African nations most exposed are those most reliant on the Gulf region for their fertilizer imports. According to UN Trade, five African nations rank in the top 10 countries that imported the most fertilizer by sea from the Persian Gulf region in 2024. Sudan is the most dependent African country and the most dependent in the world, with 54% of its fertilizers sourced from that zone. It is followed by Tanzania (31%), Somalia (30%), Kenya (26%) and Mozambique (22%).

Beyond this ranking, all African countries will be affected by the broad-based rise in fertilizer prices as this new wave of price and logistics tensions takes hold. This will be another test of how resilient African agricultural systems are. During the 2022 shock triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many African countries already faced a surge in prices but managed, to some extent, to absorb the impact through various adaptation mechanisms. Some governments adjusted their subsidy policies, targeting smallholder farmers more precisely, negotiating preferential prices with importers and seeking concessional financing to absorb part of the cost increases.

At the same time, institutions such as the African Development Bank (AfDB) put in place emergency facilities to support the purchase of fertilizers, seeds and inputs, including the $1.5 billion African Emergency Food Production Facility.

Espoir Olodo