• Nigerian airlines warn of flight suspensions over soaring jet fuel
• Kerosene prices jump nearly 300%, far above global increases
• Supply risks, high costs strain aviation sector across Africa

Nigeria's domestic aviation sector is facing a potential disruption. The Airline Operators of Nigeria has published a notice warning of possible flight suspensions, citing a sharp rise in jet fuel prices.

The price of kerosene has surged nearly 300%, climbing from 900 naira ($0.67) to 3,300 naira per liter. The association has described the increase as excessive, noting that international jet fuel prices have risen by roughly 30% over the same period.

The situation is unfolding against a backdrop of broader energy market tensions linked to the conflict in Iran. With nearly 70% of Africa's kerosene supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz, fuel prices on the continent have reached $171 per barrel, according to the Platts index. Experts are already warning of potential supply disruptions at several African airports if the crisis persists.

As of March 10, Zambia held roughly 10 days of fuel reserves, compared with three to four weeks in South Africa. Kenya had approximately 50 days of stocks.

Structural Vulnerabilities Compounding the Crisis

The current pressure on fuel supply chains adds to longstanding structural challenges facing African aviation. Jet fuel on the continent is purchased at prices at least 17% above the global average. Even before the current crisis, it accounted for a significant share of operating costs. According to the African Airlines Association, fuel represents between 30% and 40% of African carriers' operating expenses, compared with a global average of between 20% and 25%.

While Nigerian airlines have raised the prospect of suspending flights, other carriers on the continent have chosen to pass fuel costs on to passengers. In South Africa, South African Airways and FlySafair both introduced temporary fuel surcharges in March.

Should the threatened suspension materialize, it could deepen mobility challenges in a country already grappling with severe road congestion and an underdeveloped rail network. Air travel has emerged in recent years as an increasingly practical option for domestic movement. Nigeria's Federal Airports Authority recorded more than 10.5 million domestic passengers in 2025.

For now, some observers view the airlines' threat primarily as a pressure tactic aimed at pushing authorities toward tighter regulation of fuel prices.

Henoc Dossa