While sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is gaining momentum globally, Africa is lagging behind. Prohibitive costs, a lack of infrastructure, and a reliance on European standards threaten to leave the continent sidelined in aviation's green transition. Will sustainable flight, too, become a privilege reserved for the Global North?

As international air transport aims to accelerate its shift to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), Africa appears notably absent from this green movement. The continent has only five recorded SAF projects and a projected production capacity of 0.6 million tonnes by 2030. This places Africa on the sidelines of a transition considered vital for global aviation's future.

While the aviation sector accounted for just 2.4% of global CO2 emissions in 2020, according to a study in Atmospheric Environment, its trajectory is concerning. A more recent study revealed that business aviation emissions increased by 46% worldwide between 2019 and 2023. This trend intensifies pressure on airlines to adopt alternative fuels and, by implication, highlights Africa's struggle to keep pace, given it accounts for only 2% to 3% of global air traffic.

Sky-high Costs

Despite these challenges, projections for African air traffic growth are substantial. In 2024, 175 million passengers traveled through the continent's airports, up from 95 million a decade prior. This number is expected to double to 345 million by 2043, an annual growth rate of 3.7%. However, this boom remains largely underexploited. Eighty percent of passengers travel internationally, and over three-quarters fly with non-African carriers. Intra-African connections, crucial for regional economic integration, remain infrequent, uncompetitive, and poorly served. The Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), intended to accelerate progress, seems hindered by sovereignist movements.

Adding to this structural imbalance are additional costs that undermine the competitiveness of African airlines. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), jet fuel averages 17% more expensive in Africa than elsewhere. Taxes and fees are 12% to 15% higher, while insurance and maintenance costs exceed the global average by 6% to 10%. Financing is also about 30% more expensive than in other regions. In this environment, introducing SAF, which currently costs two to three times more than fossil fuel, seems initially inconceivable.

"Even if we adhere to these climate goals, it must be recalled that the cost of SAF is extremely high," Abderahmane Berthé, Secretary General of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA), told Ecofin Agency at IATA's 81st General Assembly in New Delhi in June 2025. "European or American airlines, which are profitable, can afford this transition. This is not the case for African airlines, which for the most part do not generate profits. They will not be able to adopt SAF without solid financial support."

Of the $32.4 billion in net profit generated by the global aviation sector in 2024, a 3.4% margin, Africa accounted for only $200 million, less than 0.6%. This marks the first time since the COVID-19 crisis that African IATA member airlines, generally the larger ones, have reached this level of profitability. Another indicator illustrates the disparity. In 2024, African airlines earned on average barely one dollar per passenger carried, compared with over $27 in the Middle East and a global average of $7.2. This significant gap reveals the sector's structural constraints on the continent.

Not an Isolated Case

Africa's situation is not entirely unique. In India, where the domestic market is booming, SAF also remains out of reach. "Our customers will not pay ten dollars more per ticket to fly green," Pieter Elbers, CEO of IndiGo, summarized during a high-level panel at the same assembly. His observation, though made in an Asian context, directly echoes African realities, where price sensitivity is even more pronounced.

On the African continent, airplane tickets remain among the most expensive globally, particularly on intra-African routes. According to AFRAA, taxes, fees, and airport charges can account for up to 40% of a ticket’s price in some countries. Operational costs remain abnormally high, and low traffic density severely limits economies of scale.

Abundant Resources, But Little Industrialization

Under these conditions, introducing SAF would only complicate an already untenable equation for African airlines. Price reductions, let alone large-scale adoption, are impossible without massive support.

Yet, resources are abundant. Sub-Saharan Africa has ample agricultural residues, forest biomass, and municipal waste that could form a sustainable and competitive basis for SAF production. However, the exploitation of these resources remains embryonic. Of approximately 60 Power-to-Liquid (PtL) projects planned worldwide by 2030, only 10 are currently under construction, primarily in Europe and North America. None are on the African continent.

This finding is especially concerning given that global efforts remain marginal. According to Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, while "it is encouraging to note that SAF production is expected to double to reach 2 million tonnes in 2025, that represents only 0.7% of total aviation fuel needs. And even that relatively low quantity would raise the global fuel bill by $4.4 billion."

Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist at IATA, believes the problem is not a lack of raw materials but the capacity to industrialize processes quickly. "There is enough sustainable biomass to meet climate objectives. It is not a resource problem, but a technological deployment problem," she explained. Preeti Jain, head of the IATA Net Zero program, shared a similar sentiment, stating, "Government support is essential to accelerate the scaling up of SAF technologies."

AFRAA's appeals echo this observation. In its 2024 report, the association highlighted the absence of a clear regulatory framework, a lack of fiscal incentives, and the near non-existence of production infrastructure on the continent. AFRAA believes only a strategic alliance among governments, multilateral donors, and private actors will allow Africa to participate in this energy transition rather than remain a spectator.

Barriers to Lift

Even where conditions are more favorable, the technological hurdle remains formidable. The deployment of these fuels currently relies on technologies, most of which are still experimental. According to Gauri Jauhar, Executive Director at S&P Global, 70% of the technologies expected to play a key role by 2050 have not yet reached commercial maturity. In Asia, pilot projects leverage algae or municipal waste, as Boeing recently announced in Japan. However, these initiatives remain isolated and struggle to achieve profitability without a coherent industrial policy.

Another widely discussed stumbling block during the annual assembly is taxation. Christof Rühl, an economist at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, advocates for a system based on price signals rather than outcome requirements. "If carbon emission remains free, nothing will change," he believes. He noted that while energy efficiency improves by 2% annually worldwide, carbon intensity stagnates due to a lack of financial incentive.

In practice, SAF mandates adopted in Europe or the UK risk having adverse effects, industry players warn. IATA estimates an immediate additional cost of $1.2 billion resulting from the SAF blending requirement from January 1, 2025, and $1.7 billion in indirect costs due to "implicit premiums."

"For the million tonnes of SAF we plan to purchase to meet European obligations by 2025, the market-price estimate is $1.2 billion. Added to that are $1.7 billion in compliance costs, a total surcharge that could have reduced 3.5 million tonnes of CO2," IATA, which represents over 80% of the global industry, stated in a press release. Airlines complain that "Instead of encouraging SAF use, European mandates have made it five times more expensive than conventional jet fuel."

African Exclusion on the Rise?

This observation is not trivial for Africa. Several African airlines already fly to Europe or plan to expand their network there. However, this new reality may hinder those prospects. For African carriers flying to Europe, these requirements translate into massive additional charges, likely exacerbating inequalities of access to global skies in a market already dominated by Northern players.

Among major operators, skepticism prevails. Joanna Geraghty, CEO of JetBlue, worries about increasing administrative complexity related to green taxation, especially in a context of regulatory fragmentation. "There is a risk of double taxation, administrative surcharges, and growing pressure on tax departments, which must now sit at the table in strategic decisions," she warned.

For Adrian Neuhauser, CEO of Abra Group, the key lies in educating public decision-makers. "Many still ignore the major economic contributions of the aviation sector. There needs to be an explanatory effort, notably at the level of dossier handlers within administrations," he believes.

Rare initiatives, such as FedEx integrating SAF into its cargo operations, also face cost issues. "We terminated a pilot program because it was three times more expensive than conventional fuel," revealed Richard Smith, CEO of the group’s Express division

Stay Grounded or Take Off with the Others?

Given this situation, the temptation is strong to revert to more immediate solutions such as fleet renewal, flight-plan optimization, and improved ground procedures. "The technology is not there yet, volumes neither. What is needed is a realistic approach, based on what is feasible in the short term," Richard Smith concluded.

One certainty remains: if current conditions persist, Africa will be unable to finance its own aviation energy transition. Inclusion of the continent in climate finance mechanisms, implementation of incentive policies, and more direct support from multilateral donors are indispensable for SAF not to become a luxury reserved for wealthy countries. Without this, the promise of sustainable aviation risks leaving Africa grounded.

Fiacre E. Kakpo & Henoc Dossa