• Russia suspends ammonium nitrate export licenses to secure domestic supply

• Global fertilizer markets face strain from China curbs, geopolitical tensions

• Prices rise up to 40%; uncertainty grows over Russia’s strategy

Russia has suspended the validity of already-issued export licenses for ammonium nitrate to prioritize domestic supply during the spring planting season. No new licenses will be granted, the Russian Agriculture Ministry said in a statement cited by Interfax, except for contracts signed under intergovernmental agreements. The suspension will run through April 21.

“The restriction was introduced following a decision by the ministry’s operational headquarters monitoring nitrogen fertilizer supplies to agricultural producers and their distribution,” the ministry said. “As export demand rises, suspending shipments abroad will prioritize the domestic market during the spring agricultural season and ensure continuity.”

New uncertainty in nitrogen fertilizer markets

The move has raised concerns among industry analysts, adding to existing strains caused by China’s export restrictions on urea. The world’s largest fertilizer producer and consumer imposed the curbs in October 2025 to secure domestic supply and extended them in December through August 2026.

The sector is also under pressure from escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States, which have disrupted trade through the Strait of Hormuz. According to UNCTAD, the route between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea accounts for one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade—around 16 million metric tons—of which 67% is urea.

A study by Global Sovereign Advisory published on March 15 found the crisis has already pushed average fertilizer prices up 27%, with nitrogen fertilizers rising by as much as 30% to 40%.

Russia’s decision contrasts with its position in 2022, when it leveraged geopolitical shifts to strengthen its competitiveness. In a note released in late March 2025, Global Sovereign Advisory said reduced European demand for Russian gas created a domestic surplus, allowing producers to expand ammonia and urea output. That helped Russia consolidate its position as the world’s leading fertilizer exporter, with an 18.7% market share in 2023.

The coming weeks will show whether the latest measures are temporary or signal a broader shift in Russia’s strategy in a highly concentrated global fertilizer market. Other major exporters include the European Union, China, Canada, the United States and Morocco.

According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, nearly half of the world’s population depends on agricultural production using the three main fertilizers: nitrogen, phosphate and potassium.

Espoir Olodo