• IMF projects Morocco’s growth at 4.4% in 2026, citing recovery and investment

• Central bank expects stronger expansion at 5.6%

• Outlook supported by public spending but exposed to global risks

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Morocco’s real GDP growth to reach 4.4% in 2026, according to its statement released on March 23 following the Article IV consultation and mid-term review of the country’s flexible credit line arrangement.

The forecast is based on a recovery in economic activity, supported by agriculture and continued public investment. “Increased public investment offers opportunities for stronger growth and job creation, provided risks are well managed and human capital is strengthened,” the IMF said.

Inflation, currently low, is expected to rise temporarily during the year due to higher energy prices before stabilizing around 2% over the medium term.

The IMF noted that this trajectory could support a gradual improvement in economic activity, as long as authorities maintain prudent macroeconomic policies and continue structural reforms. Fiscal consolidation, combined with stronger domestic revenue mobilization, is also expected to create room for social spending and priority investments.

However, the institution warned that “short-term growth prospects are clouded by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which affects Morocco mainly through disruptions in global commodity markets and weaker global demand amid heightened uncertainty.”

These projections contrast with those of Morocco’s central bank, which expects stronger growth. Following its policy meeting on March 17 in Rabat, the bank projected GDP growth of 5.6% in 2026, supported by increased public investment and continued structural reforms.

The draft 2026 finance law includes higher investment spending, particularly in transport infrastructure, logistics modernization, public services, and agriculture, aimed at supporting economic activity, attracting private capital, and boosting employment.

According to the IMF, growth is expected to remain solid beyond 2026, with projections of 4.5% in 2027 (compared with 3.5% from the central bank) and around 4% over the medium term, assuming a normalization in agricultural output and greater private sector participation in infrastructure investment.

Ingrid Haffiny