Earlier this week, China unveiled its new agricultural outlook for 2026-2035. The roadmap outlines a planned reduction in imports of key commodities such as grains and soybeans, aimed at lowering the country’s reliance on external markets. The move has drawn concern from many observers, who fear potential ripple effects on global trade and on countries heavily dependent on Chinese demand.

With more than 1.4 billion people, China is a pivotal player in the global food system. The country accounts for nearly 10% of the world’s arable land and imported an average of $208 billion in food products annually between 2021 and 2023, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). That figure is more than double the total food imports of the entire African continent. Across a wide range of agricultural commodities, China plays a central role in production, trade and demand.

While Egypt and Indonesia compete each season for the title of the world’s largest wheat importer, China stands apart in production. The Asian giant’s wheat output reached 140 million tonnes in 2024/2025, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). This represents more than 17% of global production and exceeds the combined harvest of all 27 European Union member states.

In corn, China ranks second behind the United States. According to the USDA, output could surpass 300 million tonnes in the current 2025/2026 season. This would give China a 23% share of global supply, roughly twice the output of its nearest rival, Brazil.

Rice remains the main staple across Asia and a cornerstone of China’s food security. Although China ceded its position as the world’s top rice producer to India in 2024/2025, it remains by far the largest consumer of the grain and holds the world’s largest rice stockpiles, which exceed 100 million tonnes.

In a global rice market dominated by a handful of major Asian exporters, China’s role as a buyer, currently third behind the Philippines and Vietnam, or less often as a marginal seller, where it ranks as the seventh-largest exporter, can shift the balance between supply and demand. When Beijing increases purchases to replenish reserves or ease domestic pressures, competition intensifies among importing countries in Africa and the Middle East. Conversely, a reduced Chinese presence can help ease prices.

Cotton, Soybean and Livestock

With cotton production estimated at around 6.9 million tonnes in 2024/2025, China remains the world’s leading producer, ahead of India, Brazil and the United States. It is also the largest consumer, driven by the scale of its textile industry.

According to data from the China Cotton Textile Association (CCTA) and the China National Textile and Apparel Council (CNTAC), the country accounts for more than half of global spinning capacity and nearly 45% of fabric manufacturing capacity. China is also one of the largest cotton importers and holds more than half of global cotton stocks. A significant share of these stocks is managed through state reserves, which buy and sell cotton to stabilize the domestic market, with spillover effects on international prices.

China is by far the world’s largest soybean buyer, absorbing roughly 60% of globally traded volumes. In 2025, its imports reached a record of approximately 111.8 million tonnes, up 6.5% year on year, making the country the primary destination for major exporters in South America, namely Brazil and Argentina, as well as the United States.

This reliance on external supply reflects the scale of China’s industrial livestock sector, including hog farming, poultry and aquaculture, which consumes large volumes of soybean meal for animal feed, as well as strong demand for soybean oil. Given its scale, Chinese soy demand does not simply follow the market; it helps shape it. When Beijing adjusts its purchases, for example by shifting toward Brazil during periods of trade tension with Washington, global trade flows are reconfigured and international prices adjust accordingly.

China holds an unrivaled position in global pork and poultry markets. As both the largest producer and consumer of pork, it accounts for nearly half of global production and consumption. The country is home to the world’s largest pig herd, with more than 700 million head, representing more than 50% of the total.

In poultry, China is equally dominant. It ranks as the world’s leading producer, with output of 16.5 million tonnes in 2025 according to the USDA, and as the largest consumer, driven by urbanization, rising incomes and growing demand for animal protein.

Espoir Olodo