• The reason behind this adjustment has not been detailed
• Investor will be looking forward the operation’s prospectus
• The IPO would occur amid business efficiency improvements from both companies

Speaking at the 32nd Annual General Meetings of the African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) on June 27th, 2025, Aliko Dangote, Chairman and CEO of Dangote Industries, announced new timelines for the initial public offerings (IPOs) of Dangote Refinery and Dangote Fertiliser. The fertilizer plant, which has a capacity of 3 million tons of urea per year, is now set for IPO in the fourth quarter of 2025. The refinery, with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is scheduled to follow in 2026. These dates differ from the previously stated target of Q1 2025, announced to Nigerian media in July 2024. No official reason has been given for the delay.

The refinery, built for $23 billion, was expected to reach full operational capacity by March 2025. Dangote confirmed the rollout of a distribution strategy covering deliveries of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and jet fuel to depots located up to 3,000 kilometers by road. The facility is positioned to meet all domestic demand—estimated at 50 million liters of gasoline and 17 million liters of diesel per day—and to export 40% of its output to other African and international markets. Projected annual revenue from 2025 onward is estimated at $25 billion, driven by local sales and exports.

Operational since 2021, the $2.5 billion fertilizer plant exported 300,000 tons of urea in Q4 2021, turning Nigeria into a net exporter. Dangote Industries plans to expand production beyond the 5.6 million tons produced annually by QAFCO, the world’s largest single-site urea facility, by August 2026. Although global urea prices have grown at an average annual rate of 38% since 2020, they have shown a downward trend since early 2025.

The refinery carries $3.65 billion in debt, including $2 billion in senior syndicated loans and $1.65 billion in intra-group loans. Revenue from operations is expected to cover the remaining debt by 2027, following the repayment of $10 billion in intra-group loans through asset sales, including divestments from Dangote Cement. While the fertilizer plant’s debt profile has not been made public, its export-driven model is expected to generate steady cash flows.

Valuations for the IPOs have not yet been disclosed. However, based on construction costs and revenue forecasts, sector comparisons suggest the refinery could be valued between $20 and $25 billion, and the fertilizer plant between $2.5 and $3.5 billion. Final valuations will depend on market conditions and outstanding debt levels at the time of listing.

The IPOs are planned for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), with a possible dual listing of the refinery on the London Stock Exchange. These listings could push the NGX’s total market capitalization above 100 trillion naira ($60 billion). Dangote Industries could reclaim its position as the NGX’s leading equity issuer, a title currently held by Abdul Samad Rabiu’s BUA Group. As of June 2025, BUA Foods and BUA Cement were valued at $5.25 billion and $2.51 billion respectively, surpassing the combined $5.1 billion valuation of Dangote Cement and Dangote Sugar.

The refinery has faced hurdles, including a downgrade of Dangote Industries’ credit rating by Fitch Ratings in 2024, from AA to B+, citing liquidity constraints. Inflation in Nigeria, at 34%, and a weakening naira continue to weigh on the investment climate. While the fertilizer plant benefits from strong global demand, achieving output levels beyond QAFCO will require significant capital investment, especially as Qatar plans to double its capacity to 12.4 million tons by 2030. The IPO prospectuses, expected in 2025, are likely to detail financial indicators such as debt repayment schedules and the proportion of capital to be listed.

The IPOs represent opportunities for investors to gain exposure to Nigeria’s energy and agriculture sectors. The refinery aims to reduce reliance on imported fuel, while the fertilizer business could contribute to improving food security across Africa. Investors will closely monitor valuation metrics, production milestones, and debt strategies to assess long-term performance potential.

Idriss Linge