• Zambia considers raising its stake in Mingomba from 20% to 25%

• Project led by KoBold Metals enters early development phase

• Mine expected to support output target of 3 million tons by 2031

Zambia has signaled its intention to increase its participation in the Mingomba copper project, even as construction activities begin on site. The plan was outlined by Phesto Musonda, chief executive of ZCCM Investments Holdings, on the sidelines of an inauguration ceremony held on April 28.

Mingomba, described as the country’s largest copper discovery in recent years, is operated by U.S.-based KoBold Metals, which holds a majority stake. ZCCM Investments Holdings, the state-controlled investment vehicle, currently owns 20% and is considering raising its share to 25%. Musonda said such a move would help increase economic returns for Zambia, though no formal negotiations have been announced.

Positioning ahead of development

No official talks between ZCCM and KoBold have been disclosed regarding a potential change in the ownership structure. However, the timing of the statement suggests a forward-looking strategy as the project moves into a key development phase. The transition was marked by the start of shaft-sinking works, launched in the presence of President Hakainde Hichilema.

This milestone follows recent comments by KoBold’s Africa head, Mfikeyi Makayi, who indicated that full construction would begin soon, with production expected in the early 2030s. The timeline aligns with Zambia’s broader ambition to raise copper output to 3 million tons by 2031, up from 890,346 tons in 2025.

A major project with limited visibility

The Mingomba project is expected to require between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion in investment and could produce about 300,000 tons of copper concentrate annually. As a privately held company, KoBold Metals has released limited details on financing and technical aspects, including the full scope of mineral resources and the mine plan.

The company has indicated it can fund development at this stage but is also in discussions with potential investors. According to Makayi, partnerships remain an option, though KoBold is currently proceeding independently.

Strategic implications for Zambia

As developments unfold, the project will offer insight into both its technical viability and Zambia’s approach to increasing state participation in large mining ventures. Beyond dividends from its stake, Mingomba is expected to generate additional tax revenue for the government.

Copper remains central to Zambia’s economy, accounting for about 17% of GDP in 2024. The success of projects like Mingomba will be critical to the country’s efforts to expand production and strengthen its position in global copper markets.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou