• Strait of Hormuz blockade triggers largest oil supply disruption, IEA says
• Oil flows drop sharply; prices surge amid limited alternative routes
• Africa hit by rising fuel costs despite limited direct exposure

The war that erupted on Feb. 28 in the Middle East and triggered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused “the largest supply disruption in the history of the oil market,” the International Energy Agency said. Within days, oil and gas flows through the strait fell sharply, cutting global supply and pushing prices sharply higher.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. About 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the strait in 2025, representing close to 25% of global seaborne oil trade, according to the IEA. More than 110 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas also moved through the strait, accounting for roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade.

BloombergNEF said nearly 32% of global seaborne crude oil trade and around 16% of petroleum product flows pass through the strait. Gulf exporters depend heavily on the route to supply key markets, particularly in Asia.

Alternative routes are limited. Only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have pipelines that can partially bypass the strait, with a combined capacity of between 3.5 million and 5.5 million barrels per day, the IEA said, well below the volumes normally transported.

In response, IEA member countries decided on March 11 to release a coordinated 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such release in the agency’s history. The release relies mainly on reserves held by the United States, Japan and European economies. The volumes, consisting mostly of crude oil, are intended to ease market pressures temporarily.

They represent only a few days of global consumption, however, and cannot offset the supply losses for long.

Effects Already Visible on African Markets

Oil flows to Africa through the Strait of Hormuz are limited. Roughly 0.2 million barrels per day of crude oil and 0.6 million barrels per day of petroleum products pass through the strait toward the continent, according to the IEA. Despite this limited direct exposure, Africa is already feeling the impact of the crisis, largely through shifts in global petroleum product flows that are driving prices higher.

Many African countries rely on imports of refined fuels, particularly diesel and gasoline. As markets tighten, supply constraints have emerged and price increases have been immediate. Fuel prices have more than doubled in Somalia, Bloomberg reported, while diesel costs in South Africa are expected to rise by at least 50%. In Kenya, authorities have introduced fiscal measures to contain prices, and some stations have reported shortages.

Nigeria, one of the continent’s largest oil producers, appears to be weathering the crisis better, partly due to the Dangote refinery, which is helping support domestic supply, although pump prices have also risen, Bloomberg said.

A Structural Vulnerability

The crisis highlights a structural vulnerability for many African countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. A disruption, whether global, as in the Strait of Hormuz, or local, as recently in Mali, where attacks by armed groups disrupted fuel deliveries, can quickly strain supply chains and put pressure on power systems and transport.

Developing local refining capacity could help reduce dependence on imported petroleum products, as seen in Nigeria. Expanding renewable power generation and electrifying transport could also limit exposure to such shocks by reducing fuel demand.

Abdoullah Diop