Consulting firm Cyclope forecast that price of commodities would fall 18% in average in 2016 against 38% the previous year.

The drop should thus be less severe than last year’s said the consulting firm which specialized in the analysis of world commodity markets and was founded by Philippe Chalmin, professor at the University of Paris-Dauphine.

This year, commodities affected include iron (-28%), soya (-26%), Brent (-25%) and coal (-20%). Zinc, nickel and maize will also suffer a two digit rate fall.

For crude whose price fell 46% for Brent and 47% for WTI in average between 2014 and 2015, Philippe Chalmin believes this year’s forecast to be too optimistic. He said it would be unlikely for barrel of crude from the Northern Sea to go above $40 average in 2016.

Mr. Chalmin says the global decrease in prices of commodities is mainly due to the fact that markets are and will remain in a surplus state. Regarding this, he mentioned “fatal production” arising as a result of the concretization of investments made between 2007 and 2012.

Cyclope’s founder also said the current crisis could last many years more. “We are now entering a period where prices are weak and which could last till the end of the decade and extend beyond even. We will come out of this period when a balance between supply and demand will be achieved,” he said.