Mali successfully raised CFA22.6 billion ($38.2 million) in a bond auction on September 4 after seeking CFA25 billion. The total bids reached CFA26.24 billion.

With a 104.96% coverage rate for its 364-day Treasury bills (BAT) and 90.62% for its three-year Treasury bonds (OAT), Mali seems to be regaining investor confidence after mixed previous results. However, the reality is more nuanced—demand for long-term bonds remains weak.

Mali attracted investors with competitive fixed rates of 6.15% for its BAT and 6.35% for its OAT. But the average weighted yields of 9.73% for the BAT and 9.78% for the three-year bonds show that the country still needs to offer high-risk premiums to draw lenders. The relative success of this operation might be partly due to investors seeking returns in an environment where they are becoming more selective.

While Mali’s ability to raise substantial funds in a tough economic context is praised, the success is only partial. The market remains hesitant about longer-term bonds, signaling that investors are cautious about the country’s medium-term economic outlook.

In contrast, Niger struggled during its bond auction on September 5. Out of CFA20 billion sought, only CFA10.125 billion was raised, representing a disappointing 57% coverage for its 182-day BAT, and no bids were accepted for its three-year OAT. The average weighted yield for the 182-day BAT was 9.34%.

Niger’s trouble placing medium-term bonds is a warning sign, as the country continues to struggle to assure investors of its long-term stability. Uncertain economic prospects, driven by rising regional tensions, are deterring investors. Niger is also facing a trade crisis with its neighbor, Benin. The stoppage of commercial relations has been a significant blow, given Benin’s port serves as a key outlet for Niger. Additionally, there’s a lack of clarity about how Niger is managing its debt, pushing the country to rely heavily on short-term financing.

Earlier this year, Niger secured $400 million in financing from a Chinese company responsible for its oil operations. This 12-month financing was backed by Niger’s oil production and came with an interest rate above 7%.

Analysts point out that the yields demanded by the markets are in line with Niger’s current situation, especially as further uncertainties have arisen regarding the blockages affecting the country’s oil.