• South32 plans to revise its 2026 production forecast for the Mozal aluminium smelter due to unresolved energy supply negotiations.

• The current electricity supply contract with Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB) expires in March 2026, and tariff talks remain unsettled.

• South32 previously cut its 2025 production forecast to 350,000 tonnes after post-election unrest disrupted operations.

Australian miner South32 operates the Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique. The company slowed operations in December 2024 following post-election unrest. This disruption forced South32 to reduce its 2025 production forecast to 350,000 tonnes.

Now, South32 plans to revise its 2026 production forecast for Mozal, covering July 2025 to June 2026. The company announced this on July 14, citing “uncertainty” over energy supply negotiations with Mozambique’s public electricity company.

Mozal relies entirely on electricity from Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa (HCB). The current supply contract expires in March 2026. Although both parties started talks to extend the deal, they have yet to finalize a new agreement. Discussions continue over supply tariffs, putting Mozal’s 2026 operations at risk. South32 currently expects to produce 370,000 tonnes in 2026.

Energy supply issues frequently affect mining in Africa. For example, Ivanhoe Mines cut its 2024 production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo from 490,000 to 450,000 tonnes due to power instability. Since April 2024, Ivanhoe has imported 100 MW of hydroelectric power from Zambia to support its operations.

South32 has not disclosed any backup plans to secure power for Mozal if negotiations fail. Besides revising production forecasts, the company plans to announce an “impairment charge” related to the project. South32 will release its 2025 fiscal year results, ending in June, on July 21.

South32 previously lowered its 2025 forecast due to operational challenges caused by unrest after Mozambique’s elections. The company now expects 350,000 tonnes of aluminium, down from the initial 360,000 tonnes projection.

This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou

Edited in English by Ange Jason Quenum