• Africa needs $150B by 2035 for universal electricity access
• 55% of new connections to use decentralized energy solutions
• IEA urges mix of public, private funding and grid expansion
  

Achieving universal access to electricity in Africa by 2035 will require an estimated $150 billion in cumulative investment, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated in its report, "Financing Electricity Access in Africa," published Monday, October 20. This estimate is based on the IEA's Accelerating Clean Cooking and Electricity Services (ACCESS) scenario.

The ACCESS scenario, which relies on the continent’s best historical performance, forecasts a progressive increase in spending: investment would triple by 2030, then triple again between 2031 and 2035. The IEA estimates that 45% of new connections will come from extending centralized electrical grids, while 55% will rely on decentralized solutions. The goal is to ensure full coverage by deploying the most cost-effective options based on local contexts.

Grid Expansion and Decentralized Solutions

Electrical grids remain central to national energy supply strategies and are the most affordable solution for urban and peri-urban areas near existing lines, the IEA noted. Annual spending on grids is projected to reach $3 billion per year until 2030, then rise to approximately $10 billion annually between 2030 and 2035 as extension projects increase.

These funds must cover power generation, transmission, and distribution, aligning with the integrated approach promoted by the African Union's Continental Master Plan. This interconnection vision seeks to enhance reliability, reduce costs, and adapt infrastructure to integrate more decentralized sources. The IEA also noted that energy planning is built on forecasts of rising demand driven by economic development and increasing household incomes.

Decentralized solutions are considered the most appropriate for remote areas situated more than 30 kilometers from the main grids, typically rural zones. Investments required for mini-grids would reach approximately $6 billion per year by 2035, with another $5 billion for solar home systems. The average installation cost per kilowatt-peak (kWp) has dropped by 35% over five years, largely due to falling prices for photovoltaic panels and lithium-ion batteries.

According to IEA data, more than 90% of new mini-grids now use battery technology, up sharply from 15% in 2017. These trends are expected to facilitate the rapid expansion of decentralized solutions in low-density areas through increasing standardization of production and financing models.

Need for Coordinated Financing

The IEA estimates that achieving universal access by 2035 requires a balanced mobilization of public and private capital. The private sector is expected to provide approximately 45% of the total required funding, primarily in solar home systems where economic models are already well established. Governments and international partners will cover the remainder through concessional financing.

The agency recommends increasing the equity share in projects from the current level of about 20% to one-third by 2035. It also advises mobilizing national pension funds, strengthening access to local credit, and developing patient capital to support decentralized solutions.

The IEA’s estimates align with ongoing commitments and coordinated actions across the continent. Twenty-nine African nations have already adopted Energy Compacts under the Mission 300 initiative, combining reforms, grid investments, and decentralized deployment. These commitments reflect a convergence with the IEA’s ACCESS scenario, where combining centralized and off-grid infrastructure is the primary lever for realizing universal electricity access.

Abdoullah Diop