After the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the rating agency Moody’s, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OCDE) on February 18th scaled down forecasts for global economic growth.
The Paris-based Organization has indeed slashed, for the second time in three months, its forecasts for global growth. It has scaled the figure down to 3%, against 3.3% last November when it had also cut it down 0.3pt.
OCDE said its decision is based on the current dark clouds lingering over the world’s economy mentioning, among others, the current slowdown in various emerging countries, modest recovery of developed nations, persistent weak trade, investment and demand, as well as significant risks of financial instability. “Growth is slowing in many emerging economies and recovery is modest in developed nations as low prices are depressing commodities’ exporters,” the institution said.
The organization scaled down by 0.5pt its 2016 growth forecasts for U.S.A to 2%, Germany’s to 1.3% and France’s to 1.2%. Forecasts for China remain as they were, at 6.5%, while India’s rose 0.1pt to 7.4%. Brazil’s growth perspectives regressed. The Latin American nation should record this year a -4% recession against -1.2% projected three months ago.
OCDE is also concerned about the absence of a locomotive to drive growth, unlike years earlier when emerging countries would compensate slowdown in developed countries.
For 2017, the institution also revised the initial forecast down to 3.3% from 3.6% three months ago when it was released. OCDE which regroups 34 developed and emerging economies warned against substantial “risks of financial instability”, emphasizing that some emerging economies “are extremely vulnerable to sharp changes in exchange rates and to the effects of a significant domestic dollar-denominated debt”.
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