• Arabica prices hit four-month low amid Brazil harvest expectations

• Brazil 2026/27 crop seen at 69-75 million bags

• Global coffee surplus forecast pressures prices further

Arabica coffee prices started 2026 on a downward trend. On Feb. 3, the price per tonne reached $5,708 on ICE New York, its lowest level since Sept. 23, when it stood at $5,704. This decline to a four-month low is primarily due to expectations of a large harvest in Brazil, the world’s leading producer.

According to the latest data from Itaú BBA, Latin America’s largest investment bank, the country’s harvest is expected to reach around 69.3 million bags (60 kg per bag) in 2026/27, up 10.1% from the previous year.

Arabica supply is projected to rise by 18% to 44.8 million bags, while robusta volumes are expected to edge down 2% to 24.5 million bags.

While this volume remains substantial, other firms estimate it could be even higher. Trader Sucden expects a total of 72.5 million bags. U.S.-based Cardiff Coffee Trading, cited by Reuters, forecasts a harvest of between 70 million and 75 million bags.

These forecasts come as a global surplus is expected in the 2026/27 season. According to estimates from Dutch banking group Rabobank published last November, the coffee market could record a surplus of 7 million to 10 million bags. This outlook is likely to weigh further on prices this year.

Market performance weakened in 2025 compared with 2024. Arabica prices rose 9% after surging 70% in 2024, while robusta prices fell 19% after gaining 72% a year earlier.

Espoir Olodo