• The World Bank forecasts a 21% annual increase in fertilizer prices.

• Urea, DAP, and potash prices surged up to 41% year-on-year in Q3 2025.

• Export limits and sanctions continue to strain global supply.

Fertilizer prices are projected to end 2025 up 21% from last year, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook report released on October 29. The institution noted that fertilizer prices have risen almost every month this year, averaging 30% higher in the third quarter than during the same period in 2024.

In September, urea prices climbed 36.6% year-on-year to $461 per ton, while diammonium phosphate (DAP) rose 41% to $554.8 per ton. Potassium chloride (MOP) also increased 23% to $286.9 per ton.

The surge stems from strong global demand and tight supply. China has maintained export restrictions on nitrogen fertilizers and limited phosphate exports to support domestic battery production for electric vehicles. Meanwhile, Belarus remains under European Union sanctions, and Russia faces new EU tariffs on fertilizer exports.

The World Bank expects DAP prices to rise 26% in 2025 before easing 8% in 2026. MOP prices are projected to increase 19%, while urea could jump 30% this year before declining 7% in 2026 and 9% in 2027. The report warned that higher fertilizer costs are likely to further squeeze farmers’ profit margins and raise concerns about future crop yields.