• Tanzania forecasts 222,057 tonnes cotton output for 2025/26
• Production rebounds 48% after drought-hit 2024/25 season
• Output volatility persists; sector targets 300,000 tonnes next season

Tanzania is expected to produce 222,057 tonnes of seed cotton in the 2025/26 crop season, with harvesting set to begin next May, a senior official at the Tanzania Cotton Board (TCB) said.

Renatus Luneja, principal agricultural officer at the TCB, disclosed the figures to local newspaper Daily News on April 11.

The projection represents a 48% year-on-year increase and would mark a rebound for a sector that recorded one of its lowest harvests in 2024/25, at 149,361 tonnes. However, it remains well below the regulator’s initial forecast of 400,000 tonnes set at the start of the season.

Luneja said the shortfall was due to adverse weather conditions during the growing season, noting that drought between January and February had severely affected yields.

The current season highlights the broader challenges facing Tanzania’s cotton sector, which has struggled to stabilize output for several years. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that since the 2019/20 season, when production reached nearly 350,000 tonnes, output has not exceeded 300,000 tonnes, fluctuating between sharp declines and partial recoveries.

With around 80% of production still exported as raw fibre, supply instability has also weighed on export earnings. According to the NBS, Tanzania generated an average of 209.8 billion shillings ($80.8 million) per year between 2020 and 2024, peaking at 245.9 billion shillings ($94.6 million) in 2023 and falling to 180.3 billion shillings ($69.4 million) in 2024.

Against this backdrop, the TCB has set a target of 300,000 tonnes for the 2026/27 season as it seeks to sustain the sector’s recovery.

Stéphanas Assocle