• Morocco projects avocado production at 80,000 tons for 2025/2026, down from last year’s record 115,000 tons.

• Extreme weather between March and July 2025 caused major fruit losses in orchards.

• The decline is expected to reduce export volumes, which account for about 90% of production.

Morocco now forecasts a harvest of 80,000 tons of avocados for the 2025/2026 season, according to Abdelkrim Allaoui, head of the Gharb Avocado Producers Association, the country’s main growing region. He shared the estimate with industry news site Fresh Plaza on August 13.

The new figure marks a 40% to 50% cut from earlier expectations of 140,000 to 160,000 tons. It also represents a drop of nearly 30% from the record 115,000 tons harvested in the previous season. Allaoui said the lower outlook follows a series of severe weather events between March and July 2025, which caused premature fruit drop.

“Unfavorable conditions began in March with extremely cold temperatures and heavy rains during flowering. The Gharb region then faced a three-day heatwave from July 28 to 30, with temperatures reaching 40°C in Kenitra and 49°C in Moulay Bousselhem. The trees could not withstand the heat and lost many fruits,” he explained.

Concerns remain over whether the sector can even reach the 80,000-ton target, especially since October’s storms and strong Atlantic winds could pose an added threat to orchards.

About 90% of Morocco’s avocado output is exported. The reduced harvest is therefore likely to significantly cut export volumes.

“Producers will have to make major agronomic efforts to care for trees and grow larger fruits to salvage the season. This will inevitably affect costs, prices, and sales methods,” Allaoui added.

No export forecast has yet been released, but the downturn could change the ranking of African avocado exporters. In 2024/2025, Morocco became the continent’s second-largest exporter, behind Kenya but ahead of South Africa, shipping 100,000 tons to international markets.

South Africa, which has never crossed the 100,000-ton threshold, exported 82,784 tons in 2024, according to Trademap, marking its fourth straight year of growth.