• US tariffs on Tunisian olive oil could reduce competitiveness from July
• Tunisia may lose ground to EU suppliers and emerging exporters like Turkey
• OTE urges Tunisia to diversify export markets and reduce dependency

Tunisia’s olive oil industry, a vital part of its agricultural exports, faces renewed pressure as the 90-day tariff grace period granted by the United States is set to expire in July. The warning comes from the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy (OTE), which released a report on June 19 outlining the risks for this strategic sector if new US trade tariffs are applied.

Tunisia is heavily reliant on the American market for its olive oil exports. The US accounts for more than 28 % of Tunisia’s export volume and nearly 29 % of its export value. According to Trade Map data, Tunisia exported 211,525 tons of olive oil in 2024, generating $1.67 billion in revenue. Of that amount, 58,234 tons worth $480 million were shipped to the US.

If the proposed tariffs go into effect, Tunisian olive oil would be subject to a 28 % duty. This could significantly weaken Tunisia’s competitive position compared to European Union countries like Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal,  respectively the 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th largest suppliers to the US market. These EU nations are expected to face lower tariffs of 20 % due to their bloc membership.

In addition, Tunisia would be less competitive against other emerging olive oil exporters, such as Turkey, Argentina, and Morocco, which are expected to face even lower tariffs of 10 %.

LIBERATION DAY RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ?? pic.twitter.com/ODckbUWKvO

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 2, 2025

Potential Domino Effect with Europe

Beyond the direct impact on Tunisian exports to the US, the OTE warns of potential secondary effects tied to trade links with European partners.

If Spanish and Italian olive oil exports to the US decline due to the new tariffs, these countries may also cut back on their bulk purchases of Tunisian olive oil. They often use Tunisian oil for reprocessing and re-exporting. Trade Map data shows that in 2024, Spain and Italy alone absorbed nearly 53 % of Tunisia’s olive oil exports by volume, totaling around 111,750 tons.

This situation creates a double risk for Tunisian producers, who may see export volumes fall both to the US and to Europe. Combined, the US, Spain, and Italy account for roughly 80 % of Tunisia’s total olive oil exports.

In light of these risks, the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy is calling for urgent action to diversify Tunisia’s export markets.

“This situation highlights the need to accelerate export market diversification, focusing on countries where Tunisia currently faces a trade deficit, as well as emerging olive oil markets in Africa and Asia,” the OTE stated. “Ultimately, it is crucial to become less dependent on specific export markets, reduce import needs, and strengthen national economic sovereignty.”