• South Africa expects a 3.1% decline in corn output to 16.13 million tons in 2025/26.

• The drop comes despite a 4.6% increase in planted area, due to weaker yields in some regions.

• Production remains well above domestic demand, supporting net exports in 2026/27.

South Africa expects a slight decline in its corn production for the 2025/26 season. According to the first estimate released on February 26 by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), the harvest is projected at 16.13 million tons, down 3.1% from 16.65 million tons last year.

The expected decline comes even as planted area increased by 4.6% to 2.71 million hectares, or 119,500 hectares more than the previous season. Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber, said the contrast reflects weaker yields anticipated in some producing regions.

Of the total crop, 8.51 million tons are expected to be white corn and 7.62 million tons yellow corn.

“We still have nine more monthly forecasts to follow, which may contain some revisions. Still, provided that weather conditions have generally been favorable across most regions of South Africa, we are inclined to believe that we are in for a better 2025-26 summer season for grains and oilseed production,” Sihlobo said, expressing optimism about the remainder of the season.

Overall, the first forecast points to stable domestic supply. The projected output remains well above annual domestic demand, estimated at around 12 million tons.

“Such a maize crop, combined with likely large carryover stocks from the current season, signals that South Africa will yet again remain a net exporter of maize in the 2026-27 marketing year that begins in May,” Sihlobo added.

Data compiled on the Trademap platform show that South Africa exported an average of nearly $970 million worth of corn annually between 2021 and 2025, mainly to neighboring southern African countries such as Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia.

Stéphanas Assocle