With domestic production expected to double, the government will use strategic reserves to cover the remaining shortfall, a move that may affect regional trade.

The Zimbabwean government announced a new ban on maize imports on Monday, citing improved domestic availability of the staple grain. The decision follows favorable rainfall that has boosted this year's harvest, according to Obert Jiri, Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of Agriculture.

The country's maize production is expected to reach around 1.3 million metric tons this year, a significant recovery from the 635,000 tons harvested in 2023-2024. That season saw a nearly 60% decline in output due to a drought exacerbated by the El Niño weather phenomenon, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In addition to the better weather, authorities credit government support for farmers, including subsidized seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides, for the improved yields.

While the anticipated harvest remains below the national annual consumption needs of 1.8 to 2 million tons, the government will rely on its Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR), managed by the Grain Marketing Board (GMB), to bridge the shortfall. The USDA projects that Zimbabwe's maize ending stocks will stabilize at around 500,000 tons during the 2024-2025 season, enough to cover approximately three months of local consumption.

The improved outlook for Zimbabwe could be a setback for South Africa, the primary regional exporter, and to a lesser extent for Zambia, which is expected to re-emerge as a net supplier this season. In 2023-2024, South Africa supplied nearly 1.2 million tons of maize to Zimbabwe, meeting almost all of its import requirements of 1.3 million tons.

Espoir Olodo