• Exports surged 41% to nearly $289 million in 2024, a multi-year high, as the sector now targets the $300 million revenue threshold for 2025.

• Growth is driven by the Blue Economy agenda, with strong EU and China demand for premium products and better processing boosting export volumes.

• Sustainability concerns loom as climate risks and overfishing challenge the sector, threatening to turn recent gains into a short-lived peak.

Tanzania’s fisheries sector is emerging as one of the country’s strongest drivers of export growth, following a sharp rebound in 2024 that pushed revenues close to the symbolic $300 million threshold. Preliminary data from the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries show export earnings reached nearly $289 million last year, supported by a 41% increase in volumes to around 60,000 tonnes — the highest level in more than five years. Authorities now expect exports to surpass $300 million in 2025, provided production and external demand remain supportive.

The momentum is closely linked to the government’s “Blue Economy” strategy under the Third Five-Year Development Plan, which prioritises value addition, export diversification and foreign exchange generation. Demand from the European Union continues to underpin high-value exports of Nile Perch fillets from Lake Victoria. At the same time, China has rapidly become a key destination for dried fish maws, a niche product commanding premium prices. The commissioning of new processing facilities in Mwanza and coastal regions has also helped reduce post-harvest losses and improve compliance with international quality standards.

Beyond headline figures, the sector’s expansion carries broader macroeconomic implications. Rising fisheries exports are expected to strengthen Tanzania’s current account position and support foreign currency inflows at a time when East African economies face persistent balance-of-payments pressures. Industry insiders note that increased local processing is gradually shifting the sector away from raw exports, improving margins and creating opportunities for private operators along the value chain.

However, sustainability concerns remain a key risk to the sector’s medium-term outlook. Research from the Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute (TAFIRI) indicates continued pressure on fish biomass in major water bodies such as Lake Tanganyika, driven by climate variability and overfishing. While the industrial Nile Perch segment has benefited from stricter regulation and export controls, artisanal fishing communities along the Indian Ocean coast continue to struggle with illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, undermining both livelihoods and food security.

The sector’s sensitivity to weather conditions also poses a structural vulnerability. The strong performance in 2024 was supported by stable lake levels following favourable rainfall, a factor that remains highly unpredictable. Environmental groups have welcomed recent investments in cold-chain infrastructure but argue that export windfalls should be partially reinvested into conservation and community-based resource management to secure long-term stock regeneration.

As Tanzania positions fisheries as a pillar of its blue economy, the key challenge will be converting short-term export gains into sustainable growth. Balancing rising global demand with ecological constraints will determine whether the sector’s march toward the $300 million mark becomes a durable transformation or a climate-dependent peak.