• Chinese importers continue to prioritize Brazilian soybeans over US supplies.
• Price and tariff gaps keep US soybeans less competitive despite a trade truce.
• Diplomatic talks could influence China’s future soybean purchases from the US.

China’s renewed appetite for US soybeans is still slow to materialize. Under a trade truce reached with Washington in December, Beijing committed to resuming purchases after a period of boycott. However, market participants say Chinese buyers remain cautious.

US soybeans, yes—but not now

Sources cited by Bloomberg say Chinese importers booked at least 25 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans during the week of January 19, mainly for loading in March and April.

The preference reflects Brazil’s more competitive pricing, a trend expected to continue through the first half of the year.

According to Reuters, despite the agreement between the two economic powers, US soybeans are still subject to a 13% tariff, compared with a 3% duty on Brazilian shipments.

China has already bought about 12 million tons of US soybeans since late October to meet its commitments. These volumes were purchased exclusively by state-owned firms Sinograin and COFCO. Private processors continue to favor Brazilian soybeans, which offer better margins and benefit from strong demand for soybean meal used in animal feed.

In Brazil, consultancy Agroconsult forecasts a soybean harvest of 182.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, up 10.1 million tons from a year earlier. Favorable weather conditions are expected to lift yields to 62.3 bags per hectare, compared with an earlier estimate of 60.8 bags, with one bag equal to 60 kilograms.

This record output could further boost shipments to China, Brazil’s largest export market, until the United States begins its export season in September.

Diplomacy as a key factor

China has pledged to purchase at least 25 million tons of US soybeans annually through 2028. Analysts say meeting that target will largely depend on how diplomatic relations between the two countries evolve. A meeting scheduled for April between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to be closely watched by the market.

“If the April meeting yields further tariff reductions and certain assurances on the Taiwan issue, China may commit to soybean purchases, but volumes are likely to remain limited,” Dan Wang, China director at consulting firm Eurasia Group, told Reuters.

The return of US soybeans to the Chinese market in October helped lift global soybean prices. Over the full year 2025, soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade posted gains of about 4.9%, marking their first annual increase in three years.

Espoir Olodo