• Sub-Saharan Africa will expand 5G subscriptions from 27 million in 2025 to 400 million in 2031.

• The region will be the only one worldwide where 4G subscriptions keep growing through 2031.

• Monthly mobile data traffic per smartphone will more than double to 12 GB by 2031.

Sub-Saharan Africa will sharply accelerate its shift toward 5G networks in the next six years, while remaining the only region in the world where 4G subscriptions continue to rise, according to Ericsson’s latest Mobility Report published on November 20.

The Swedish telecom-equipment group expects 5G subscriptions in the region to increase from 27 million in 2025 to 400 million in 2031. The projection implies an average annual growth rate of 57% as operators expand coverage and smartphones become more affordable.

Ericsson says 4G subscriptions will grow at a slower annual pace of 3%, rising from 490 million this year to 570 million by 2031. This trend contrasts with steep declines expected in other regions, including a 30% drop in Western Europe, 29% in China and 27% in Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

The report notes that 3G networks will contract faster than 2G. Ericsson estimates 3G subscriptions will fall 8% per year to reach 89 million in 2031, while 2G will decline by 7% annually to 243 million. By the end of the forecast period, 5G will account for roughly 31% of all mobile subscriptions in the region, compared with 44% for 4G.

Total mobile subscriptions across all technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa will expand from 1.05 billion in 2025 to 1.31 billion in 2031, representing an annual growth rate of 4%.

The transition toward 4G and 5G will fuel strong demand for smartphones. Ericsson expects 960 million mobile subscribers in the region to use smartphones in 2031, supported by cheaper devices and wider network availability.

The shift will push data consumption sharply higher. Average monthly mobile data traffic per active smartphone will climb from 5.3 gigabytes in 2025 to 12 gigabytes in 2031, an annual growth rate of 15%. The company attributes the increase to improved device capabilities, cheaper data plans, longer usage time and expanding high-data-intensity content.

Even with this growth, Sub-Saharan Africa’s projected 12-gigabyte monthly average will remain below the global average of 21 gigabytes in 2025 and 39 gigabytes in 2031.

Overall mobile data traffic in the region—including smartphones, laptops, mobile routers, tablets and fixed wireless access—will rise from 2.8 exabytes per month in 2025 to 10 exabytes in 2031. Ericsson says this 24% annual growth rate will be the fastest worldwide.

Globally, total mobile subscriptions will reach 9.5 billion by 2031, up from 8.8 billion in 2025. Ericsson expects 5G subscriptions to grow from 2.9 billion this year to 6.4 billion in 2031.

This article was initially published in French by Walid Kéfi

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum